I-Muddy Waters Ayikwazanga I-AppLovin. I-They Have Shortened You

I-Muddy Waters ye-AppLovin esifundeni esifundeni esifundeni esifundeni esifundeni esifundeni esifundeni esifundeni esifundeni esifundeni esifundeni esifundeni.

Kodwa ukucacisa uzothola ukuthi yini ayikho-like the stuff real short reports usually include. Noma kunjalo, abantu abanikeze lokho njengokufumana i-unicorn ebomvu ezivela ku-logs ye-server. Sawubona, ukubukeka kwebhizinisi akuyona amafakelo. Kuyinto ukunciphisa kwabo. Just enough jargon and innuendo to let the market fill in the fear.Futhi umngciwane usebenza ngokufanelekileyo lapha - siye sincoma ama-advertisements. Thina siphinde ezinzima. Ngakho lapho umuntu ukhohlisa ukuthi i-advertising platform ephakeme kakhulu inikeza into ebomvu? Kubaluleke ngokwenene.

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Kuyinto umdla: "Sihlanganisa ukuthi ungakufunda le nkampani ngokunemba kakhulu ukuze akhululwe isithombe lethu."

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Kuyinto umdla: "Sihlanganisa ukuthi ungakufunda le nkampani ngokunemba kakhulu ukuze akhululwe isithombe lethu."

Thina akuyona ngokumelene ne-AppLovin ye-business, kodwa ngokumelene ne-comprehension yakho.I-Classic Intellectual Arbitration kuyinto.

Kodwa njengomthengisi, ngizithembekile kakhulu ukuba ngihambe emzimbeni yami futhi ibonisa indlela le-stack isebenza - futhi ukuthi akuyona inkinobho zabo akuyona.

What Muddy Waters Is Actually Saying (In Plain English, With a Straight Face)

Here’s the report, minus the hedge fund perfume:

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1. I-AppLovin ye-advertisements ikakhulukazi kubhalwe kumadivayisi owaqala ukuthenga.
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2. Thina usebenzisa i-pixel yokuhamba okuhlola ukuthi abantu abenzi ku-websites - futhi mhlawumbe okuhlobisa umugqa we-Apple noma i-Google.
3. I-AI engine yayo (i-AXON) ibonise enhle, kodwa angaba akuyona yini eyodwa.
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4. Izinkampani ezithakazelisayo ze-ecomm zibonisa i-platform futhi akuyona.
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5. It ukunambitheka Cheetah Mobile - ngenxa yokuba akuyona isicelo sokukhangisa Chinese okuyinto yasekelwe, kuphela ngenxa yokusebenza okuhle?

Yini. Akukho amabhuku amancane, ama-imeyili zangaphakathi, noma i-”holy sh*t” yokubonisa.I-just a handful of what-ifs kanye ne-”trust us, this is bad” i-vibes i-duct-taped kanye ne-technical vocab zonke zihlukaniswe ku-pdf enhleNgathi

It all sounds terrifying if you’ve never run an ad campaign.

But for all those words, not a single one was spent on the most basic question: What does this company actually do?

Okungenani ngoba uma uye, iningi imibuzo yabo zihlala.Thola siphindeza kuboNgathi

What AppLovin Actually Does (Since Apparently That Wasn’t Relevant)

I-AppLovin ibonisa i-advertisements ngaphakathi kwezinhlelo zokusebenza ze-mobile — ikakhulukazi imidlalo. Uyavula umdlalo, uyazi i-advertisement ukuze uthole ama-money ezininzi — lokho.Just infrastructure that makes in-app ads work.

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1. I-Developers Plug in the SDK (MAX)

MAX powers the ads inside mobile games—rewarded videos, playables, interstitials—and automatically chooses the highest-paying one.

Yenza indawo, usebenza i-auction, futhi usebenzise logic.

[I-Sidebar: Indlela I-AppLovin I-AppLovin Yenza Ngaphansi kwe-140,000 I-Apps]

I-AppLovin ayikwazanga ukuhlangabezana ne-Unity. I-Unity yasungulwa ngenxa ye-prestige. I-studios emikhulu. Imidlalo emangalisayo. I-AppLovin yasungulwa ngenxa ye-Unity abalandeli - ama-hypercasuals, ama-solo devs, namaqela abalandeli. Kuboniswa ukuthi kukhona abaningi.

Futhi i-MAX akuyona i-cold. I-AppLovin iye iye iye i-studios ezinkulu, futhi i-pumped imikhiqizo yayo ye-advertising ngokusebenzisa uhlelo - ukwandisa i-liquidity ngaphambi kokubili umuntu. Usuku lokuqala, iye yenza. Ngakho-ke uzothola i-140k i-apps ngaphandle kwe-parade: ukwandisa abantu ngokukhawuleza kunomunye.

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2. I-Advertisers ibhokisi nge-AppLovin Exchange (ALX)
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Ngokuvamile imidlalo studio kanye e-commerce ama-brands. ALX ukuthatha isicelo kusuka ku-DSPs, amakhasimende e-programmatic, futhi amakhasimende e-direct. Ngemuva kwalokho, AXON, injini yokufundisa umshini, ivame ukuthi ad esibonakalayo, lapho, nokuningi.

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3. I-Payment Loop
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Uma umsebenzisi uxhumane, ukufaka, noma ukulayisha - umbhali akhawunti. I-AppLovin ithatha isixazululo. Umphumela wahlala umbhali. Ngaphezulu kokusebenza kwe-advertisement, kunikezwa kakhulu. Ngaphezulu kunikezwa, kunikeza wonke umuntu.

I-adtech enamathela idatha yokuthengisa, i-pipes ye-pipes, futhi zihlanganisa ngezindlela zayo. Zihlala phakathi kwamakhasimende nomthengisi futhi angathanda ukuthi umuntu akuyona ukuthi akuyona yini.

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I-AppLovin ayikho. It is running.

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I-AppLovin ayikho. It is running.

Yenza i-SDK. I-Auction. I-Exchange. I-Optimization Engine. Yenza imibuzo futhi ibonise imiphumela. Lezi level ye-control kuyinto engaphansi ku-adtech.But it’s not illegal.Kuyinto ukuthi Apple, Amazon, futhi Google zenza iminyaka eminyakeni - ngoba ukulawula ngokuphelele akuyona umngciwane wombala. Kuyinto nje ukuthi ukwakha okungcono kubonakala.

So no—AppLovin isn’t shady. But pretending full-stack execution is fraud? That might be.

An Autopsy of a Report That Never Had a Pulse

Great - manje ukuthi siphile izicelo zabo, isikhathi ukubhalisa ingozi yabo. Izikhwama off.

“It’s Just Retargeting” — Cool, That’s Called Performance Marketing

One of the main claims in the Muddy Waters report is that over half of AppLovin’s conversions come from retargeting. They frame that like it’s a bad thing. Like AppLovin is cheating the system by showing ads to people who were already going to convert.

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Ngiyazi ingxenye ukuthi bafumane: Retargeting kuyinto ingxenye yokuthengisa okwenza abantu abalandeli.

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Ngiyazi ingxenye ukuthi bafumane: Retargeting kuyinto ingxenye yokuthengisa okwenza abantu abalandeli.

Yenziwe: Uqhuba i-brand ye-ecomm, ufuna ukufumana abasebenzisi ngokushesha. Uma umuntu u-click emakhasini yakho, i-add to the cart, bese u-bailed – ufuna le umntu ngokushesha. Ufuna i-100% incrementality. You need ROI.And that’s exactly what AppLovin helps advertisers optimize for:time-to-purchase, payback window, LTV curves - akukwazi brandI-Direct-Response, phansi kuya ku-decimal point.

Ngakho-ke uma umbhalo ivumela ukuthi re-targeting = ukuguqulwa okufakiwe,Into eyodwa zihlanganisa ukuthi bayazi kancane mayelana ne-marketing funnels kunezansi yakho.

“Their Pixel Might Violate Platform Rules” — Cute Story, Still No Evidence

I-Muddy Waters isixazulule i-AppLovin ye-tracking pixel njenge-impendulo-ukukhuthaza ukuthi ingangena ne-Apple noma i-Google amapoliti kanye nokuvela ku-Cheetah Mobile-style takedown. Abanikeze indlela. Abanikeze ukuthi inikeza. Abanikeze kuphela imibuzo futhi ivumela i-paranoia ukwenza okungenani.

This part of the report is the classic hedge fund trick: Float the idea of a Terms of Service violation, backfill with vibes, then hope the market scares itself.

Ngikwazi ukucindezeleka:

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• Konke ama-ad platform isebenzisa ama-pixel. Ngakho-ke ukucubungula ama-conversions. I-AppLovin ye-version ayisithakazelisayo – kuyinto yekhwalithi.
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• Unlike everyone else’s pixels, AppLovin’s never needed device IDs. It was built to work after Apple nuked IDFA. That’s the whole point of AXON: make smart predictions with limited data.
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• Kungekho isinyathelo se-platform backlash. I-Apple ne-Google ayikho i-subtle when they don't like you. Uma i-AppLovin ishayela kanjani into enhle, akukwazi ukuvikelwa ku-270,000+ ama-apps. Bhalwa.
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Ngakho-ke uma i-Muddy Waters has i-imeyili kusuka ku-Tim Cook wathi, "Sithatholakala ku-AppLovin," lokhu kuphela isibopho esisekelwe ku-vibe nge-nothing ngaphansi kwalokho.

And worse, this argument completely misses the point. I-pixel ayikho umphumela. Kuyinto umphumela. I-edge yayo – isizathu sokusebenza kwe-AppLovin – i-AXON.And the fact that Muddy Waters barely mentions it tells you everything.

AXON Isn’t Overhyped. It’s the Reason AppLovin’s Still in Business.

I-Muddy Waters isixazululo ukwenza i-pixel ye-AppLovin i-sound like a surveillance device.Ngena ngemvume. It’s just a signal.

Ikhasi lokwenene kuyinto AXON, okuyinto ibhizinisi ngokufanelekileyo ashiselwe njenge "I-AI overhyped".Okwe. Futhi Google kuyinto kuphela search bar.

AXON’s the entire reason AppLovin didn’t get body-bagged by Apple’s privacy changes. They didn’t have the biggest name or the most headlines. They were simply tighter, faster, and meaner. Here’s what gave AXON the edge:

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• I-AppLovin isilawula yonke isikhwama. I-SDK isilawula i-ad-call. I-ad-server yayo isebenza i-bidding. I-AXON ibonise isithombe ephelele: abantu abalandeli, abalandeli, abalandeli, abalandeli, abalandeli. Lezi zithakazelisayo zebhizinisi zokusebenza. Lezi zithakazelo zebhizinisi bonke abalandeli abalandeli.
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• Ukulungiselela ku-cutting-throat ad environment kukhona: imidlalo ye-mobile. Iningi yemakethe ye-AppLovin isebenza ngaphakathi imidlalo ye-mobile. Kuyinto imvelo enhle: abasebenzisi abalandeli, futhi ama-developer abalandeli amaphepha asebenzayo. Futhi abalandeli kuphela ku-there-world - abalandeli isikhwama esiyinhlanganisela. Lokhu kunikeza i-AXON ukubukeka ngokuphelele: i-click, i-return, i-spending, i-behavior - akukho kuphela ama-impressions, kodwa iziphumo.
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• I-AXON ayizungulwe. I-AXON yasungulwa ngemuva kokubeletha kwe-IDFA. Nakuba wonke umuntu wahlanganyela ukuhlangabezana nezinhlelo zokusebenza ze-tracking-addicted, i-AppLovin wahlanganyela ukucindezeleka futhi waqala ukucindezeleka. Akukho ifayibha ye-duct. Akukho ama-rewrites. I-head start kuphela - futhi uhlelo elidinga ukucindezeleka yokusebenza.
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Yaziwa ngokukhawuleza. Yaziwa ngaphansi kokucindezeleka. Futhi lokhu kokucindezeleka kwenziwa i-monster. Ngakho-ke, i-Axon ayikwazanga.Kuyinto engabonakali kuphela kumadivayisi owenziwe ngempumelelo noma owenziwe dumber.

“Churn” Isn’t a Red Flag. It’s a Line in a Spreadsheet Without Context.

I-Muddy Waters inikeza izinga le-23% ye-churn phakathi kwamakhasimende we-e-commerce e-AppLovin njengomthombo we-rejection ye-product. Kodwa lokhu kudingeka:I-AppLovin yasungula ibhizinisi yayo ku-e-commerce ngo-2024.Kwakhiwa ama-advertisers ezintsha ezisebenzayo – abaninzi kubo ziye zokuqala e-mobile – ukuhlola ama-advertisements e-app nge-budgets amancane angu-quarterly.

Izinye izinto Muddy wahlala ukufinyelela:

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• Akukho umzekelo ukuthi lokhu kubaluleke. Imininingwane asebenza ngokushesha. Izimali zihlanganisa. Izimali asuswe. Uma lokhu kuyinto ukuchithwa okuhle, kuyoba ku-top line. Akukho.
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• I-Performance Advertisers isebenza ngokufanelekayo ngokufanelekayo. Ikakhulukazi ku-e-commerce. Abanikeza ama-channels ngokufanayo ne-CAC, ukuguqulwa ngokushesha, futhi ukuguqulwa ngaphandle kwe-ceremony. Lezi zokusebenza ezivamile - akuyona ukuchithwa.
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• The 23% stat itself is unlabeled. Is it spend-based? Account-based? Were these $1K test budgets or six-figure campaigns? The report doesn’t say—because context would ruin the punchline.
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Futhi lapha ingxenye ebalulekile: 77% of those e-commerce advertisers wahlala. Kuyinto ayikho amakhasimende wahlala. Kuyinto emakethe wahlala.

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Futhi lapha ingxenye ebalulekile: 77% of those e-commerce advertisers wahlala. Kuyinto ayikho amakhasimende wahlala. Kuyinto emakethe wahlala.

The Numbers Don’t Lie—Which Is Exactly Why the Report Doesn’t Focus on Them.

Konke imibuzo elihle esifundeni lokuqala endaweni efanayo: Izinombolo. Uyakwazi ukuthi izindleko zihlanganiswa. Uma izindleko zihlanganiswa. Uma i-cash flow i-smoke ne-mirrors.

I-Muddy Waters akuyona lokho lapha.

Ngaphandle kwalokho, baye baye zihlole i-pixel, i-churn, ne-speculation-ngokuthintela kakhulu into eyodwa enhle kakhulu: Indlela ye-AppLovin isebenza njenge-business.

Ngenxa yalokho, lokhu kungenzeka ukuthi izibalo zibonise:

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• I-$3.2 billion yokuthengisa kwe-advertising ngoLwesihlanu – ukwandisa i-75%
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• I-$2.1 billion cash flow free, akuyona i-”i-EBITDA eyenziwe”, akuyona ama-projections-cash
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• 33% + margin yokuthengisa net
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• Over $2 billion in share buybacks—executed while insiders held their shares

Kuyinto ibhizinisi emangalisayo. Kuyinto ibhizinisi enhle yokusebenza, iziqinisekiso ezinzima, nokuningi ukubuyekeza ibhizinisi ngesilinganiso. Uma kukhona into emangalisayo, uya kuba emangalisayo. Uma churn kuyinto ingxaki emangalisayo, kungathanda i-revenue. Uma i-pixel theory iye amabhizinisi, uya kuba ingozi emangalisayo.

Kodwa lokho akuyona - ngoba ibhizinisi kuyinto enhle, efanelekayo, nokukhula.

Njani ukunciphisa ama-number? Ngokuphathelene, akukwazi ukuncintisana umlando.

They Talked About Pixels and Churn. Not the Part That Prints Money.

I-Muddy Waters inesikhathi esikhulu sokubizwa mayelana ne-pixel, i-churn, ne-intelligent-sounding AI.Know what they barely mention? Ukuhlobisa.

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Kuyinto efanelekayo - ngoba lokhu kuyinto enhle esifundisa ukuthi inqubo ye-AppLovin ye-advertising ibhizinisi isebenza kahle kakhulu - futhi ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi kungcono kakhulu.

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Kuyinto efanelekayo - ngoba lokhu kuyinto enhle esifundisa ukuthi inqubo ye-AppLovin ye-advertising ibhizinisi isebenza kahle kakhulu - futhi ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi kungcono kakhulu.

Ngiyazi ukuthi wonke umthengisi uyazi, kodwa i-Muddy akufanele ukhangela:

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• I-CPM ye-Social Is Through the Roof
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• Ukucubungula Is Garbage
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• Wonke abantu abalandeli ukuba abalandeli ku-internet ngenxa ye-shoe eyenziwe
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So where does attention still convert? Games.

Imidlalo kuyinto indawo enhle lapho abasebenzisi ngokwenene ukhangela ama-advertisements. Akukho ngenxa yokuba "ukudlala emoyeni."Because they bribe you. Watch an ad, get a power-up. Watch two, get another life. And games aren’t just for kids. They’re for anyone with a phone and a short attention span.

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• 73% of Zynga players say in-game ads help them discover brands

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• I-69% yabasebenzisi e-Asia ibhalisele i-video enezimali kunazo zonke ama-format
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• Futhi 58% zithi ukuthi ngokuvamile zihlanganisa ngaphezulu ngezilimi zayo
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Kuyinto isikhwama. Kuyinto isikhwama esilandelayo yokusebenza. Futhi i-AppLovin akuyona ingxubevange - akuyona ngaphambi kokufaka. Ngokusho ku-Muddy, akuyona akuyona kakhulu ukuze akuyona le ncwadi. Akuyona nje akuyona ngaphandle kokubonisa ukuthi akuyona.

Final Thoughts: The Real Risk Isn’t Churn. It’s Comprehension.

I-AppLovin ye-problem eningi akuyona ama-advertisers abalandela ama-akhawunti zayo.Kuyinto enhle kakhulu ku-CBF emakethe ukuze ufunde.

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Futhi i-Muddy Waters akuyona lokho - baye zihlola. Abanikeze isithuthuthu. Abanikeze ukucindezeleka - futhi baye baye zihlola ukuthi kungcono kakhulu.

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Futhi i-Muddy Waters akuyona lokho - baye zihlola. Abanikeze isithuthuthu. Abanikeze ukucindezeleka - futhi baye baye zihlola ukuthi kungcono kakhulu.

Kodwa uma lokhu kuyinto esithakazelisayo isihloko esifushane namhlanje, singenza ukuhlangabezana ukuhlangabezana.

Ukukhuthaza amandla.