Izimakethe zokubikezela sekuyisikhathi eside zisebenza njengamabhola ekristalu agcwele imithombo, zihlakaza imininingwane ehlakazekile yokubikezela ukhetho, amashifu kwezomnotho, kanye nempumelelo yezobuchwepheshe. Kodwa kwezesayensi, zeqa ukubikezela nje—ziba amalabhorethri aphilayo lapho okucatshangwayo kuhlolwa khona, kucwengisiswa, futhi kukhuthazwe ngokwezimali ngesikhathi sangempela. Le ndatshana ingena phakathi kwenguquko ye-epistemic evuswe izimakethe zokuqagela zesayensi—indlela ezinamandla okubhekana ngayo namaphutha esistimu ocwaningweni, zimise kabusha izindlela zokuqinisekisa, futhi zichaze kabusha ukuthi kusho ukuthini ukukhiqiza ulwazi emhlabeni ovulekile.
Ukumakethwa kweqiniso
Kuthiwani uma iqiniso lesayensi linganqunywanga amakomiti kanye nezici zomthelela, kodwa indawo yemakethe evulekile lapho okucatshangwayo kuphakama noma kwehla ngokusekelwe ekubhejelweni kwesikhathi sangempela?
Emakhulwini eminyaka, ukuqinisekiswa kwesayensi kuye kwancika ekubuyekezweni kontanga okungaguquki, ukugunyazwa kwesikhungo, kanye nodumo lwezemfundo—izinhlelo ezigcwele ukuchema, izingqinamba, kanye nezisusa zezombusazwe. Umphumela? Inkinga yokukhiqiza kabusha, isikhukhula sezifundo ezingenawo amandla, kanye nohlelo lapho uxhaso lubeka khona izinto eziza kuqala ocwaningweni kunokufaneleka kwangempela kwe-epistemic (
Izimakethe zokubikezela zethula enye indlela ehlukile: uhlaka lwezezimali lokukhuthaza ukukhiqizwa kolwazi, lapho imibono ingamane nje ishicilelwe—ihlolwa ingcindezi, icwengisiswe, futhi iqinisekiswe ngobuhlakani obuqoqekile. Azinabungozi—ziyakhula ngokungaqiniseki, zijwayelana ngokuqhubekayo nedatha nemininingwane emisha.
Umgogodla wetiyori
Sekuyisikhathi eside ihlonishwa njengezinjini zobuhlakani obuhlangene, izimakethe zokubikezela sekuyisikhathi eside zibonwa njengamandla aphazamisayo ekubikezelweni kwesayensi nasekuthatheni izinqumo (
Emgogodleni wazo, izimakethe zokubikezela zihlanganisa "ukuhlakanipha kwezixuku" ekushayeleni ngokweqile—uhlelo oluhlukaniselwe amandla lapho amathuba ashintsha khona ngesikhathi sangempela, enanela izimiso ze-epistemology yaseBayesia (
Isisekelo esiyingqopha-mlando sezimakethe zokubikezela sihambisana nefilosofi ka-Karl Popper yesayensi, ikakhulukazi umbono wakhe wokuthi inqubekelaphambili yesayensi yembuleka ngokuqagela nokuphikiswa—inqubo yokuzibandakanya okubalulekile kunokuthembela ebungcwetini obubodwa. Izimakethe zokubikezela zihlinzeka ngendawo ehlelekile lapho imibono eyahlukene ihlangana khona, iqhudelana, futhi icwengisise imibono eqanjiwe ngendlela ehlukaniselwe amazwe. Njengoba
Ngaphezu kwalokho, lezi zimakethe zifaka ithiyori yolwazi ye-Hayekian, ebeka ukuthi ulwazi oluhlakaziwe, lapho luhlanganiswe kahle, luveza izinqumo ezinembe kakhulu nezisebenza ngempumelelo kunokulawula okumaphakathi. Izimakethe zokubikezela ziphula ukuqinisekiswa kwesayensi ngaphandle kwezikhungo ze-hierarchical, ziguqula amandla kusistimu ehlukaniswe, evulekile lapho ulwazi lukhiqizwa, luvivinywa, futhi lucwengisiswe ndawonye. Ngaphezu nje kwethuluzi, bakha ingqalasizinda ephilayo —esobala, ebambe iqhaza, futhi eshintshashintshayo ngocezu ngalunye olusha lobufakazi.
Umqondo oyinhloko: Izimakethe zokubikezela njengamathuluzi e-epistemic
Izimakethe zokubikezela zisebenza njengezindlela ezihlukaniselwe ukuhlanganisa ulwazi. Ababambiqhaza babhejela ithuba lomphumela, futhi ubuhlakani obuqoqiwe bemakethe bulungisa izintengo ukuze zibonise isimo esingaba khona kakhulu.
Kumongo wesayensi, izimakethe zokubikezela zithatha indima ehlukile njengamathuluzi e-epistemic—amasistimu okukhiqiza, ukuhlola, kanye nokucwengisiswa kolwazi. Ngokwakha izimakethe ngemibono yesayensi, ababambiqhaza babheja ukuthi izimangalo zizoqinisekiswa yini ngokuhlolwa, banikeze ukuhlolwa okuguquguqukayo, kwesikhathi sangempela kokwethembeka kwabo.
Ukusuka ezinhlelweni zokuhlola eziqhutshwa ngochwepheshe ukuya ekubikezelweni okuqhutshwa yimakethe, izimakethe zokuqagela zesayensi zinikeza imisebenzi embalwa ebalulekile:
- Ukuhlanganiswa kolwazi: Izimakethe zokubikezela zihamba phambili ekuhlanganiseni ulwazi oluhlukaniselwe indawo oluvela emithonjeni eyahlukene, ngokuvamile okuholela ekubikezelweni okunembe kakhudlwana kunokuhlola ngakunye.
- Ukuhlanganiswa kolwazi oluhlakazekile: Isayensi ikhethekile ngokujulile, ngochwepheshe bagxile ezizindeni eziwumngcingo. Izimakethe zokubikezela zivumela bobabili ochwepheshe kanye nabantu bangaphandle abanolwazi ukuthi babambe iqhaza epulatifomu yokubikezela okwabelwana ngayo, bethola ukuqonda okuhlukahlukene (
I-Budescu & Chen, ngo-2015 ). - Ukwakha ukuvumelana: Ezifundweni ezinokungavumelani okuphawulekayo kwesayensi, izimakethe zokubikezela zihlanganisa imibono eyahlukene ibe inani lemakethe eyodwa, enikeza isilinganiso senkolelo esiyiqoqo esingase sithembeke kakhulu kunokuhlaziya kwemeta-ulwazi noma amaphaneli ochwepheshe (
UWolfers noZitzewitz, ngo-2004 ).
Umthelela wenjini ye-epistemic: Isikhumba sezezimali emdlalweni
Kwenzekani uma iqiniso linenani lentengo?
Kusayensi yendabuko, amaphutha avame ukuphikelela ngoba akekho ojeziswa ngokwezimali ngenxa yokungalungile. Ababuyekezi ontanga abalahlekelwa yimali lapho begunyaza iphepha elibi. Abahleli bejenali abakhokhi ngokushicilela izifundo ezibuthakathaka. Ezifundweni, ungaba nephutha iminyaka futhi uthole isikhundla.
Izimakethe zokubikezela zishintsha igeyimu ngokuphoqelela ukunemba ngezisusa zezezimali. Uma imali isendleleni, imibono ithatha isisekelo seqiniso—abahlanganyeli baklonyeliswa ngenxa yemiphumela yokubikezela ngendlela efanele, hhayi ukuvikela ukuchema kwesikhungo noma ukuphusha ukulandisa. Lokhu kudala injini ye-epistemic enamandla, lapho ukuba okulungile kunenzuzo, futhi ukuba okungalungile kunemiphumela yangempela.
Kulolu hlelo, ukuqinisekiswa kwesayensi kuba ukuhlolwa okuvulekile, okuphezulu, lapho imibono iphakama futhi iwe ngokusekelwe emandleni ayo okubikezela, hhayi ukugunyazwa kwesikhungo. Esikhundleni sokunxenxa iziphathimandla, imakethe ivuza into eyodwa kuphela: ukuba neqiniso mayelana neqiniso.
Ukubhekana nenkinga yokuphindaphinda kwesayensi
Esinye sezithembiso ezibaluleke kakhulu zezimakethe zokubikezela amandla azo okubhekana nenkinga yokukhiqiza kabusha—indaba ebukela phansi ukwethembeka kocwaningo lwesayensi ngenxa yokungakwazi ukuphindaphinda okutholakele okushicilelwe (
Ucwaningo oluyingqophamlando olusebenzisa izimakethe zokubikezela ukuhlola izifundo zengqondo ezingama-44 lubonise ukuthi ukuhlola okuqhutshwa yimakethe kungabikezela ngempumelelo imiphumela yokuphindaphinda, ukwedlula izindlela zokuhlola zendabuko (
Le ndlela iguqula umbhalo ekuqinisekisweni kwesayensi, imiselele ukugaya okunensayo kokuphindwaphindwayo kwangemva kokushicilela ngokuhlolwa kwekhwalithi okuguquguqukayo, okucatshangelwayo—izinsiza eziqondisayo lapho zibaluleke kakhulu khona kanye nokuqinisekisa ukuthi ucwaningo oluyisisekelo luthola ukugqama olulufanele.
Ngaphandle kokubuyekezwa kontanga: Imodeli entsha yokuqinisekiswa kwesayensi
Uhlelo oluvamile lokubuyekeza ontanga, nakuba luyisisekelo ekushicileleni kwesayensi, luvame ukugxekwa ngokuhamba kancane, okufiphele, kanye nokungenwa ukuchema okufana nokuqiniswa kwesimo esikhona kanye nokucabanga kweqembu. Izimakethe zokubikezela zinikeza enye indlela—uhlelo olubamba iqhaza nolusobala lokuqinisekiswa kwesayensi olusebenza ngesikhathi sangempela.
Ushintsho olunjalo lungaholela kumbono omusha ekuqinisekiseni ucwaningo, lapho ukwethembeka kwesayensi kunganqunywa nje ngokubuyekezwa kontanga okumile kodwa kuhlolwa ngamandla ezimakethe zokubikezela eziqhubeka zibuyekeza ngokusekelwe ebufakazini obusha. Kulo mhlaba, iqiniso aliveli emagunyeni—liqhudelana endaweni yemakethe evulelekile, lapho kusekhona imibono eqine kakhulu.
Izinzuzo zezimakethe zokubikezela kwisayensi
🟡 Amamodeli anamandla okuzilungisa
Ngokungafani nemibono yochwepheshe emile noma izinhlolovo, izimakethe zokuqagela ziyaqhubeka zibuyekeza njengoba kuvela ulwazi olusha, okuvumela ukulungiswa kwesikhathi sangempela kuzibikezelo zesayensi. Lesi sici sibenza babaluleke kakhulu ezindaweni zocwaningo ezihamba ngokushesha.
🟡 Ukunciphisa ukuchema kwengqondo
Ukuhlola okuvamile kwesayensi kuvame ukugoba ngaphansi kwesisindo sezigaba zezemfundo, ukungqubuzana kwentshisekelo, kanye ne-inertia ehlangene. Ukubophela izinzuzo zezezimali ekubikezelweni okunembile, izimakethe zokubikezela zinqamula ukuchema kwesikhungo, umbono ovuzayo phezu kokucabanga kwesimo samanje.
🟡 Ukuthuthukisa ukwabiwa kwezinsiza
Uxhaso lwesayensi luvamise ukusatshalaliswa ngokusekelwe ekusebenzeni kocwaningo lwangaphambilini kanye nesithunzi sesikhungo kunokuba kube nomthelela ongase ube khona. Izimakethe zokubikezela zinikeza enye indlela ngokulinganisa inani elilindelekile leziphakamiso zocwaningo ngesikhathi sangempela. Ama-ejensi axhasa ngemali angasebenzisa le mininingwane ukuze abeke phambili amaphrojekthi ngomthelela omkhulu olindelwe, okwenza ukwabiwa kwezinsiza kusebenze kahle kakhudlwana (
🟡 Izimpawu zakuqala zempumelelo yesayensi
Imakethe yokuqagela ewuketshezi futhi esebenzayo ingasebenza njengenkomba yokuqala yokuguquguquka kokuvumelana kwesayensi. Esikhundleni sokulinda ukushicilelwa okusemthethweni kanye nemijikelezo yokubuyekezwa kontanga, abacwaningi bangaphendula ngokuguquguqukayo kumasignali emakethe asafufusa, balungise umsebenzi wabo ekuphenduleni ubufakazi obuguqukayo.
🟡 Ukukhuthaza ukubeka izinto obala kanye nesayensi evulekile
Izimakethe zokubikezela ziguqula ukubikezela okuhlangene kube yinkulumompikiswano yomphakathi, eguquguqukayo, ekhulisa ukucaca enkulumweni yesayensi. Lapho behlanganiswa nezinhlelo zesayensi ezivulekile, bakha isistimu ehlukaniselwe ukuqinisekiswa kwe-hypothesis-ukuhlakulela isiko lokucwaninga elichumayo ngokuqina, ukusebenzisana, kanye nokuziphendulela.
Ithiyori yokuhlanganisa nokwenza: Izivimbamgwaqo ezimakethe zokubikezela isayensi
Naphezu kwesithembiso sazo setiyetha, izimakethe zokubikezela kwesayensi zibhekana nezithiyo ezinkulu ekusebenzeni. Imizamo yangaphambi kwesikhathi ike yazabalaza ngokubamba iqhaza okulinganiselwe, imali encane, kanye nesikhalo esivimbela lezi zimakethe ukuthi zifinyelele inani elibalulekile elidingekayo ukuze kube nomthelela oqhubekayo.
Enye yezinkundla ezisebenze isikhathi eside,
Ngokufanayo,
Ngokuphambene,
Kodwa-ke, naphezu kwale miphumela ethembisayo, i-SciCast ihlale ithule cishe iminyaka eyishumi, ibonisa umzabalazo obanzi wokusekela ukuhlanganyela okusebenzayo ezimakethe zokubikezela zesayensi.
Isithembiso sokwabiwa kwamazwe
Ukunyuka kwezinkundla ezihlukaniselwe abantu kuye kwaphefumulela impilo entsha ezimakethe zokubikezela zesayensi, kwagqashuka ekugadweni kwesikhungo kanye nemikhawulo yefa. Amapulatifomu asekelwe ku-Crypto afana
Kodwa-ke, indlela eya ekubikezelweni kwesayensi kwesayense ayizange ihambe kahle.
Izikhombisi-ndlela zesikhathi esizayo zezimakethe zokubikezela kwesayensi
Ukwamukelwa okusabalele kwezimakethe zokubikezela kwesayensi kubhekene nezinselelo ezimbalwa, okuhlanganisa ukukhathazeka ngokulawula (njengoba ezinye izindawo zingase zizihlukanise njengezinkundla zokugembula), izinkinga zezezimali (ukuqinisekisa ukubamba iqhaza okwanele ukuze kukhiqizwe izibikezelo ezinengqondo), kanye nesidingo sezindlela zokuxazulula eziqinile zokuqinisekisa imiphumela yesayensi. Ukwandisa umthelela wabo, ukusetshenziswa kwesikhathi esizayo kufanele kucabangele:
- I-AI-resolution nama-smart oracles: Ukusebenzisa ubuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye nama-oracles ahlukaniselwe ukwenza ngokuzenzakalelayo ukuqinisekiswa kwemiphumela yesayensi, kuncishiswe ukuzithoba kanye nokwethenjwa okwandayo ezinqumweni zemakethe.
- Amamodeli ayingxube ahlanganisa ukubuyekezwa kontanga kanye nokubikezela kwemakethe: Amajenali nezinhlangano ezixhasa ngemali zingahambisana nezinqubo zokubuyekeza zendabuko ngokuhlolwa kwamathuba okusekelwe emakethe.
- Abakhiqizi Bemakethe Abazenzakalelayo (ama-AMM) besayensi: Ukusebenzisa amasu okwenza imakethe e-algorithmic, njengemithetho ye-Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules (LMSR), ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukutholakala kwemali nokubamba iqhaza kalula (Hanson, 2003).
- Ukuhlanganiswa nezinkundla zesayensi ezivulekile: Ukushumeka izimakethe zokubikezela ezinkundleni zokucwaninga ezikhona ezivulekile kungakhuthaza ukubamba iqhaza okukhulu nokuba sobala.
- Izinyathelo zemfundo nezokufinyelela: Ukujwayela abacwaningi ngobukhenikha kanye nezinzuzo zezimakethe zokuqagela kuzobaluleka kakhulu ukuze bamukelwe.
Izinselelo nezisombululo: Uhlangothi olumnyama lolwazi olumakethwayo
Yonke inguquko iza nesiphithiphithi, ubungozi, nemiphumela ebingahlosiwe. Ngenkathi izimakethe zokubikezela zinikeza isivinini, ukucaca, kanye nobuhlakani obuhlukaniselwe izwe, ziphinde zivule umnyango wokukhohlisa, izingqinamba zokuziphatha, kanye namabhomu agqitshwayo alawulayo. Uma isayensi iphendulwa imakethe yokubheja, kwenzekani uma isistimu idlalwa? Lapho izikhuthazo zisuka ekufuneni iqiniso ziye ekwandiseni inzuzo? Lapho izimakethe ziqinisa ukuchema kunokukuqeda?
Isiphetho
Izimakethe zokubikezela azilona nje ithuluzi elisha kunqolobane yesayensi—ziwumvukeli ngokumelene nemishini enensayo, efiphele, nelandelanayo yokuqinisekisa ngokwesiko. Ngaphezu komshini wokubikezela, akha injini yesifo esiphilayo, ephefumulayo—ephumelela ekwahlukaniseni amazwe, obala, kanye nenhlanganisela yobuhlakani besikhathi sangempela.
Uma zithatha izimpande, izimakethe zokubikezela kwesayensi ngeke nje zilungise uhlelo olukhona; bazobhala kabusha i-DNA yayo. Emhlabeni lapho ulwazi olunganembile lusabalala ngokushesha kunokutholwa, futhi ukuvumelana kuntekenteke futhi kuphikiswana ngakho, lezi zimakethe zinikeza enye indlela ehlakaniphile: inethiwekhi eguquguqukayo, ezilungisayo lapho iqiniso lingashiwongo phezulu kodwa livela ngokuhlanganyela ekucabangeni okuhlangene. Lokhu akukona ukubuyekezwa kontanga okungu-2.0—kuyinto eqine kakhulu: imakethe yemibono evulekile, eguqukayo, nengantengi, lapho ulwazi luvivinywa njalo, lucwengisiswa, futhi lucatshangwe kabusha.
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