Amasoko yo guhanura amaze igihe kinini akora nk'imipira ya kirisiti, itandukanya amakuru yatandukanye kugirango hamenyekane amatora, ihinduka ry'ubukungu, n'iterambere ry'ikoranabuhanga. Ariko muri siyanse, barenze guhanura gusa - guhinduka laboratoire nzima aho hypotheses igeragezwa, ikanozwa, kandi igashishikarizwa amafaranga mugihe nyacyo. Iyi ngingo yibanda ku mpinduramatwara y’ibyorezo yatewe n’amasoko yo guhanura siyanse - uburyo bafite ubushobozi bwo gukemura inenge zishingiye ku bushakashatsi, kuvugurura uburyo bwo kwemeza, no gusobanura icyo bisobanura kubyara ubumenyi ku isi yuguruye.

Kwamamaza ukuri

Byagenda bite se niba ubumenyi bwa siyansi butateganijwe na komite nimpamvu zingaruka, ahubwo byatewe nisoko rifunguye aho hypotheses izamuka cyangwa igabanuka hashingiwe ku gihe nyacyo?

Mu binyejana byashize, kwemeza siyanse byashingiweho no gusuzuma urungano ruhamye, kwemerwa ninzego, nicyubahiro cyamasomo - sisitemu yuzuye kubogama, kubangamira, no gushimangira politiki. Igisubizo? Ikibazo cyimyororokere, umwuzure wubushakashatsi budafite imbaraga, hamwe na sisitemu aho inkunga itegeka ubushakashatsi bwibanze aho kuba icyorezo cy’ibyorezo ( Baker, 2016 ; Björk n'abandi., 2010 ; Fang & Casadevall, 2012 ; Larivière n'abandi., 2015 ; Romero, 2019 ).

Amasoko yo guhanura atangiza ubundi buryo bukomeye: uburyo bwo gushimangira imari mu gutanga ubumenyi, aho ibitekerezo bidatangazwa gusa - bigeragezwa no guhangayika, kunonosorwa, no kwemezwa binyuze mubwenge rusange. Barwanya-gucika intege-bitera imbere gushidikanya, guhora bahuza namakuru mashya nubushishozi.

Inkingi yumugongo

Kuva kera bashimwa nka moteri yubwenge rusange, amasoko yo guhanura kuva kera yagaragaye nkimbaraga zibangamira iteganyagihe no gufata ibyemezo ( Hanson, 1995 ; Buckley, 2014 ; Almenberg, Kittlitz & Pfeiffer, 2009 ). Muguhindura ubumenyi bwacitsemo ibice mumazi, igihe-nyacyo giteganijwe, aya masoko ahindura ukudashidikanya mubimenyetso bigenda bihindagurika, bigenda bihindagurika, bigahinduka hamwe na buri ngingo nshya.

Muri rusange, amasoko yo guhanura akubiyemo "ubwenge bwimbaga nyamwinshi" kuri overdrive - sisitemu yo kwegereza ubuyobozi abaturage aho bishoboka guhinduka mugihe nyacyo, bigahuza n'amahame ya epistemologiya ya Bayesiya ( Hsu, 2011 ). Aho kugira ngo ibitekerezo byinzobere bihamye, bahatira ubumenyi mubikorwa, bagahindura imyizerere uko ibimenyetso bigenda. Igisubizo? Kwikosora, icyitegererezo cya siyanse, aho ukuri kudategekwa - kugaragara, guhuza, no guhatanira umwanya wibitekerezo.

Urufatiro rw’ibyorezo by’amasoko yo guhanura rwumvikana na filozofiya ya siyanse ya Karl Popper, cyane cyane igitekerezo cye cy'uko iterambere rya siyansi rishingiye ku bitekerezo no kuvuguruza - inzira yo kwishora mu bikorwa aho gushingira ku buhanga bwihariye. Amasoko yo guhanura atanga ibidukikije byubatswe aho ibitekerezo bitandukanye bihurira, guhatana, no kunonosora hypotheses muburyo bwo kwegereza ubuyobozi abaturage. Nk Robin Hanson (1995) , umwe mu baharanira inyungu za mbere ku masoko yo guhanura muri siyansi, yagize ati: “Amasoko ntabwo ari ahantu hajyaho ibicuruzwa gusa, ni urubuga rwo gukusanya ubumenyi.” Guhindura imanza kugiti cyawe mubushishozi rusange, amasoko yo guhanura atanga imbaraga zingirakamaro kuri sisitemu gakondo yo gusuzuma.

Byongeye kandi, aya masoko akubiyemo ibitekerezo byubumenyi bwa Hayekian, byerekana ko ubumenyi butatanye, iyo bukusanyirijwe hamwe, butanga ibyemezo bifatika kandi byiza kuruta gufata ibyemezo. Amasoko yo guhanura asenya kwemeza siyanse nta bigo byubuyobozi, bihindura imbaraga muri sisitemu yegerejwe abaturage, ifunguye aho ubumenyi butangirwa, bugeragezwa, kandi bunonosowe hamwe. Kurenza igikoresho gusa, bakora ibikorwa remezo bizima -bisobanutse, bitabira, kandi bigenda bihindagurika hamwe nibimenyetso bishya.

Igitekerezo cyibanze: Isoko ryo guhanura nkibikoresho byibyorezo

Amasoko yo guhanura akora nkuburyo bwo kwegereza ubuyobozi abaturage bwo gukusanya amakuru. Abitabiriye amahugurwa bahitamo amahirwe yo kuvamo, kandi ubwenge rusange bwisoko rihindura ibiciro kugirango bigaragaze ibintu bishoboka.

Mu rwego rwa siyanse, amasoko yo guhanura afata umwanya wihariye nkibikoresho byibyorezo - sisitemu yo kubyara, kugerageza, no gutunganya ubumenyi. Mugukora amasoko hafi ya hypothesse yubumenyi, abitabiriye amahugurwa bareba niba ibirego bizemerwa mubigeragezo, bitanga isuzuma rifatika, ryigihe-gihe cyo kwizerwa kwabo.

Kwimura muburyo bwa gakondo bwo gusuzuma busuzumwa nubuhanga bushingiye ku guhanura isoko, amasoko yo guhanura siyanse atanga imirimo myinshi yibyorezo:

• Gukusanya amakuru: Amasoko yo guhanura arusha abandi gushimangira ubumenyi bwegerejwe abaturage buturuka ahantu hatandukanye, akenshi biganisha ku guhanura neza kuruta gusuzuma buri muntu.
• Gutandukanya ubumenyi butandukanye: Siyanse yihariye cyane, hamwe nabahanga bibanda kumurongo muto. Amasoko yo guhanura yemerera abahanga ndetse nabamenyeshejwe hanze kugirango batange umusanzu muburyo bwo guhanura, bakoresheje ubushishozi butandukanye ( Budescu & Chen, 2015 ).
• Kubaka ubwumvikane: Mubyiciro bitavuga rumwe na siyansi, amasoko yo guhanura ahuza ibitekerezo bitandukanye mubiciro byisoko rimwe, bitanga igipimo rusange cyo kwizera gishobora kuba cyizewe kuruta meta-isesengura gakondo cyangwa itsinda ryinzobere ( Impyisi & Zitzewitz, 2004 ).

Ingaruka ya moteri yicyorezo: Uruhu rwamafaranga mumikino

Bigenda bite iyo ukuri gufite igiciro?

Muri siyansi gakondo, amakosa akomeje kubaho kuko ntamuntu uhanwa namafaranga kubera amakosa. Urungano rusubiramo ntutakaza amafaranga mugihe bemeje impapuro mbi. Abanditsi b'ikinyamakuru ntabwo bishyura amafaranga yo gutangaza intege nke. Muri kaminuza, urashobora kwibeshya kumyaka kandi ukabona manda.

Amasoko yo guhanura ahindura umukino muguhatira ukuri binyuze mubushake bwamafaranga. Iyo amafaranga ari kumurongo, ingengabitekerezo isubiza inyuma ukuri - abitabiriye amahugurwa bahembwa guhanura neza ibizagerwaho, ntabwo ari ukurengera kubogama kwinzego cyangwa gusunika inkuru. Ibi birema moteri ikomeye yibyorezo, aho kuba ukuri byunguka, kandi kwibeshya bigira ingaruka nyazo.

Muri ubu buryo, kwemeza siyanse bihinduka igeragezwa rifunguye, rifite ibitekerezo byinshi, aho ibitekerezo bizamuka kandi bikagwa ukurikije imbaraga zabo zo guhanura, ntabwo byemewe ninzego. Aho kwiyambaza ubuyobozi, isoko ihemba ikintu kimwe gusa: kuba ukuri mubyukuri.

Gukemura ikibazo cyimyororokere muri siyanse

Imwe mu masezerano akomeye y’amasoko yo guhanura ni ubushobozi bwabo bwo guhangana n’ikibazo cy’imyororokere - ikibazo kibangamira icyizere cy’ubushakashatsi bwa siyansi bitewe n’ubushobozi buke bwo kwigana ibyatangajwe ( Gordon n'abandi, 2021 ; Munafo n'abandi., 2015 ; Holzmeister n'abandi. 2024 ).

Ubushakashatsi bwibanze bwifashishije amasoko yo guhanura kugirango hasuzumwe ubushakashatsi 44 bw’imitekerereze bwerekanye ko isuzuma rishingiye ku isoko rishobora guhanura neza ibyavuye mu kwigana, bikarusha uburyo gakondo bwo gukora ubushakashatsi ( Dreber n'abandi, 2015 ). Kwemerera abitabiriye amahugurwa guhitamo amahirwe yo kwigana neza, amasoko yo guhanura atanga uburyo buhendutse bwo gushyira imbere imbaraga zo kwigana. Ubushakashatsi hamwe nisoko ryo hasi-isuzumabushobozi rishobora kwigana irashobora gushyirwaho ibendera kugirango irusheho kugenzurwa, mugihe ubushakashatsi bwizewe bushobora gushirwa mubikorwa bifatika.

Ubu buryo buhindura inyandiko ku kwemeza siyanse, gusimbuza buhoro buhoro bwo kwigana nyuma yo gutangazwa hamwe nigenzura ryiza, ryibanze ryibanze - kuyobora umutungo aho bifite akamaro kanini kandi ukareba niba ubushakashatsi bwibanze butanga icyerekezo gikwiye.

Kurenga urungano rusubirwamo: Icyitegererezo gishya cyo kwemeza siyanse

Sisitemu gakondo isubiramo sisitemu, nubwo ishingiro ryogutangaza siyanse, akenshi iranengwa kuba itinda, idasobanutse, kandi ishobora kwibasirwa kubogama nko gushimangira uko ibintu bimeze no gutekereza kumatsinda. Amasoko yo guhanura atanga ubundi buryo - sisitemu yitabira kandi iboneye yo kwemeza siyanse ikora mugihe nyacyo.

Robin Hanson (1995) yatekereje ku masoko yo guhanura nk'ibikoresho bihindura ubwumvikane bwa siyansi, bigereranywa n'ukuntu Satoshi Nakamoto yahagaritswe yahinduye ibikorwa by'imari. Yavuze ko amasoko yo guhanura ashobora kuba siyanse icyo inzitizi zigamije gutera inkunga: gahunda yo kwegereza ubuyobozi abaturage, mu mucyo wo gukusanya ikizere n'amakuru. Ni muri urwo rwego, amasoko yo guhanura ahuza n'imyitwarire ya siyanse yegerejwe abaturage (DeSci), ishaka demokarasi no gutangiza ibikorwa remezo bya siyansi.

Ihinduka nk'iryo rishobora kuganisha kuri paradizo nshya mu kwemeza ubushakashatsi, aho kwizerwa mu bya siyansi bitagaragajwe gusa no gusuzuma urungano rusanzwe ahubwo bigasuzumwa mu masoko yo guhanura bikomeza kuvugurura bishingiye ku bimenyetso bishya. Muri iyi si, ukuri ntiguturuka ku butegetsi - kurushanwa ku isoko ry’ibyorezo byeruye, aho hashobora kubaho ibitekerezo bikomeye gusa.

Ibyiza byamasoko yo guhanura mubumenyi

Models Dynamic yo kwikosora

Bitandukanye nibitekerezo byimpuguke bihamye cyangwa ubushakashatsi, amasoko yo guhanura ahora avugurura uko amakuru mashya agaragara, bigatuma habaho ihinduka-nyaryo mubihe bya siyansi. Iyi mikorere ituma bagira agaciro cyane mubice byubushakashatsi bwihuta.

Kugabanya kubogama

Isuzuma rya siyansi gakondo akenshi rishingiye ku buremere bw'ubuyobozi bukuru, amakimbirane y'inyungu, hamwe n'ubusumbane rusange. Guhuza ibikorwa byubukungu kugirango hamenyekane neza, amasoko yo guhanura yagabanijwe kubogama kwinzego, guhemba ibintu bifatika kubitekerezo.

Gutezimbere ibikoresho byagenwe

Inkunga ya siyanse ikunze gutangwa hashingiwe kubikorwa byubushakashatsi byashize ndetse no kumenyekana kwinzego aho kuba ingaruka zishobora kubaho. Amasoko yo guhanura atanga ubundi buryo bwo kugereranya agaciro kateganijwe kubitekerezo byubushakashatsi mugihe nyacyo. Ibigo bitera inkunga birashobora gukoresha ubwo bushishozi kugirango dushyire imbere imishinga ningaruka ziteganijwe cyane, bigatuma umutungo utangwa neza ( Dreber n'abandi, 2015 ).

Ibimenyetso byambere byiterambere rya siyansi

Isoko ryamazi kandi rikora neza rishobora kuba ikimenyetso cyambere cyo guhindura imyumvire ya siyanse. Aho gutegereza ibitabo byemewe hamwe nurungano rusubirwamo, abashakashatsi barashobora kwitabira byimazeyo ibimenyetso byisoko bigenda bigaragara, bagahuza akazi kabo mugusubiza ibimenyetso bigenda bihinduka.

Gushishikariza gukorera mu mucyo no gufungura siyanse

Amasoko yo guhanura ahindura iteganyagihe mu mpaka rusange, zifite imbaraga, zongerera umucyo mu biganiro bya siyansi. Iyo ihujwe na siyanse yubumenyi ifunguye, bashiraho uburyo bwo kwegereza ubuyobozi abaturage kwemeza hypothesis-gutsimbataza umuco wubushakashatsi utera imbere cyane, ubufatanye, no kubazwa ibyo bakora.

Kuzuza ibitekerezo hamwe nimyitozo: Inzitizi zamasoko yo guhanura siyanse

Nubwo basezeranye kubitekerezo, amasoko yo guhanura siyanse ahura nimbogamizi zifatika mubikorwa. Kugerageza hakiri kare byahanganye nubwitabire buke, umuvuduko muke, hamwe nubujurire bwiza bubuza aya masoko kugera kumubare munini ukenewe kugirango ingaruka zirambye.

Imwe muma platform maremare akora, Kungurana ibitekerezo , yakiriye amasoko ku ngingo nk’ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi ndetse n’ikirere cya CO₂ kuva mu 1994. Icyakora, ingaruka zayo zakomeje kuba nkeya. Nk Thicke (2017) byagaragaye, isoko ry’ubushyuhe ku isi ryabonye ubucuruzi burindwi gusa muri 2015, bugaragaza ingorane zo kwishora mu bitabiriye amahugurwa kugira ngo habeho ibintu bifatika.

Mu buryo nk'ubwo, iPredict , urubuga rushingiye kuri Nouvelle-Zélande, rwagerageje gutangiza amasoko ku buhanga bugezweho, nko kuvumbura ibintu bishya byerekana imbonerahamwe cyangwa kuvumbura amoko yazimye. Nubwo ibyifuzo bifuza cyane, aya masoko yananiwe gukurura inyungu zirambye, ahanini biterwa no kubura inkunga yinzego no gushishikarizwa kwitabira. Kuba nta buryo bwemewe bwo guhuza amasoko yo guhanura mu gufata ibyemezo bya siyansi byababujije kubyemeza.

Ibinyuranye, SciCast , umushinga w'isoko ryo guhanura uyobowe na kaminuza ya George Mason kandi uterwa inkunga na IARPA, werekanye ubushobozi bwo guhanura siyansi kurenza ibyo abahanga bavuga. Binyuze mu kimenyetso gishingiye ku buryo bwo gushimangira, SciCast yitabiriye abitabiriye amahugurwa kandi yerekana imbaraga z'ubwenge rusange mu guhanura ibizava mu bumenyi. Nk Almenberg, Kittlitz & Pfeiffer (2009) byavuzwe *, * amasoko yo guhanura arashobora guhindura demokarasi ubuhanga, guhangana nabashinzwe amarembo gakondo yo kwemeza siyanse.

Nubwo, nubwo ibyo bisubizo bitanga icyizere, SciCast yakomeje gusinzira hafi imyaka icumi, byerekana urugamba runini rwo gukomeza kugira uruhare rugaragara mumasoko yo guhanura siyanse.

Isezerano ryo kwegereza ubuyobozi abaturage

Kwiyongera kw'ibikorwa byegerejwe abaturage byahumekeye ubuzima bushya ku masoko yo guhanura siyanse, bivanaho inzugi z'inzego n'inzitizi z'umurage. Crypto ishingiye kumurongo nka Polymarket —Kwinjije miliyoni 30 z'amadolari y’Amerika yose hamwe yafunzwe (TVL) na miliyari imwe y’amadolari y’ubucuruzi mu mwaka wa 2024 - yerekana ubunini n’ubujurire bw’iteganyagihe ryegerejwe abaturage. Hamwe nubuhanuzi bujyanye na siyanse ubu bugenda bwiyongera, Polymarket yabaye ihuriro ryabantu batandukanye bitabiriye amahugurwa, byerekana ko hamwe nubushake bukwiye hamwe nigishushanyo mbonera, amasoko yo guhanura ashobora gutsinda aho bagarukira. Uyu munsi, yiganjemo amasoko yo guhanura web3, arenga Miliyoni 600 z'amadolari no gukurura abakoresha 150K +, gushimangira uruhare rwayo nkibikorwa byingenzi byerekana igipimo.

Amasoko y'inzitiro , urubuga rwa Solana ruzamuka rushingiye ku guhanura, rugenda rwiyongera mu guhanura ubumenyi, guhangana na Polymarket yiganjemo Ethereum. Ku ikubitiro yibanze kuri politiki, siporo, n’imari, ubu ni yo itangiza amasoko yo guhanura kuramba, bigatuma abamotari bakora ubushakashatsi bwo kwagura imbeba binyuze mubufatanye na pompe .

Nyamara, umuhanda wo kwegereza abaturage ubumenyi bwa siyansi ntiwagenze neza. Augur , rimwe mu masoko ya mbere yahagaritswe ashingiye ku guhanura, yabanje kwerekana amasezerano ariko arahungabana kubera ibibazo nka betting idahwitse na UX ikennye, biganisha ku kwangirika kwicyizere. Aya makosa ashimangira ko hakenewe amahame mbwirizamuco no gushyira mu gaciro - cyane cyane ku masoko ya siyansi aho kwizerwa ari byo byingenzi. Nkuko Imre Lakatos ashobora kubivuga, intsinzi yuru rubuga ishingiye ku bushobozi bwabo bwo gukora nka " gahunda zubushakashatsi butera imbere" - sisitemu ikomeye, yikosora ihuza ubunyangamugayo bwubumenyi nubushishozi bufite ireme.

Icyerekezo kizaza kumasoko yo guhanura siyanse

Kwiyongera kwinshi kumasoko yo guhanura siyanse ahura nibibazo byinshi, harimo impungenge zubuyobozi (kuko inkiko zimwe zishobora kubashyira kumurongo wurusimbi), ibibazo byubwishingizi (kwemeza uruhare ruhagije kugirango habeho guhanura ibintu bifatika), kandi hakenewe uburyo bukomeye bwo gukemura kugirango hamenyekane ibyavuye mubumenyi. Kugirango bagabanye ingaruka zabo, gushyira mubikorwa ejo hazaza bigomba gutekereza:

• Gukemura ibibazo bya AI hamwe nubwenge: Gukoresha ubwenge bwubukorikori hamwe nubushobozi bwo kwegereza ubuyobozi abaturage kugirango uhindure igenzura ryibyavuye mu bumenyi, kugabanya ibintu no kongera icyizere mu myanzuro y’isoko.
• Moderi ya Hybrid ikomatanya gusubiramo urungano no guteganya isoko: Ibinyamakuru ninzego zitera inkunga bishobora kuzuza inzira zisanzwe zisubirwamo hamwe nisuzuma rishingiye ku isoko.
• Abakora isoko ryikora (AMMs) kubumenyi: Gukoresha tekinike yo gukora isoko ya algorithmic, nka Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules (LMSR), kugirango habeho ubworoherane no kubigiramo uruhare (Hanson, 2003).
• Kwishyira hamwe hamwe na siyanse yubumenyi ifunguye: Gushyira amasoko yo guhanura mumasoko asanzwe yubushakashatsi bwakozwe burashobora gushishikarizwa kwitabira no gukorera mu mucyo.
• Gahunda yo kwigisha no kwegera: Kumenyera abashakashatsi nubukanishi ninyungu zamasoko yo guhanura bizaba ingenzi kubyemeza.

Ibibazo & ibisubizo: Uruhande rwijimye rwubumenyi bwamamajwe

Impinduramatwara yose izana akaduruvayo, ibyago, n'ingaruka zitateganijwe. Mugihe amasoko yo guhanura atanga umuvuduko, gukorera mu mucyo, hamwe nubwenge bwegerejwe abaturage, barakingura kandi inzira yo gukoreshwa, imyitwarire idahwitse, hamwe na mines zigenga. Niba siyanse ihindutse isoko ryamasoko, bigenda bite iyo sisitemu ikinishijwe? Iyo gushimangira biva mu gushaka ukuri kugera ku nyungu-nyinshi? Iyo amasoko ashimangira kubogama aho kuyasesa?

Umwanzuro

Amasoko yo guhanura ntabwo ari igikoresho gishya gusa mu bubiko bwa siyansi - ni inyeshyamba zirwanya imashini zitinda, zidasobanutse, kandi zikurikirana mu buryo bwa gakondo. Kurenza uburyo bwo guhanura, bagize moteri nzima, ihumeka icyorezo - imwe itera imbere mu kwegereza ubuyobozi abaturage, gukorera mu mucyo, hamwe no guhuriza hamwe ubwenge bwigihe.

Nibashinga imizi, amasoko yo guhanura siyanse ntabwo azahindura gusa sisitemu iriho; bazandika ADN yayo. Mw'isi aho amakuru atari yo akwirakwira vuba kuruta kuvumburwa, kandi ubwumvikane bukaba bworoshye kandi burahatana, ayo masoko atanga ubundi buryo buteye ubwoba: umuyoboro ufite imbaraga, wikosora aho ukuri kudategekwa kuva hejuru ariko kugaragara muburyo bwo gutekereza hamwe. Ntabwo ari urungano rusubirwamo 2.0 - ni ikintu gikomeye cyane: isoko ifunguye, ihindagurika, kandi irwanya antifragile isoko ryibitekerezo, aho ubumenyi bukomeza kugeragezwa, kunonosorwa, no kongera gutekereza.

Reba

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