AI & the Quest for Superintelligence

As the dominant species on Earth, humans have used intelligence to rule without competition. But we are now on the cusp of creating something that could challenge our supremacy—Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). This concept, once relegated to the realm of science fiction, is rapidly becoming a tangible reality. To understand its significance, we must first explore the very nature of intelligence and how it has propelled humanity to its current position.

Wait… can we first define what is “intelligence”?

Intelligence is the ability to learn, reason, acquire knowledge and skills, and use them to solve problems. It is a form of power, and humans have harnessed it more effectively than any other species, allowing us to break free from the constraints of nature. However, the journey to dominance was anything but straightforward. For most animals, intelligence was too energy-intensive to be worth the cost, leading to its limited development.

Over millions of years, various forms of intelligence emerged across species, from the rudimentary brains of flatworms to the complex neural structures of birds, octopuses, and mammals. But it was the hominins, emerging 7 million years ago, who experienced a rapid and profound expansion of brain capacity. This shift from narrow to general intelligence transformed our ancestors into toolmakers, fire wielders, and the creators of culture. By 250,000 years ago, Homo sapiens had developed the ability to work together in large groups, communicate complex ideas, and ask fundamental questions about the world.

With each discovery, humanity's collective knowledge grew, culminating in rapid advancements in agriculture, writing, medicine, astronomy, and philosophy. The scientific revolution, beginning around 200 years ago, accelerated this progress exponentially, leading to the development of technologies that have reshaped our world. The internet, a mere 35 years old, has further transformed human society, making it easier to access and share knowledge on a global scale.

Today, we live in a world that has been shaped to suit our needs, created by us and for us. This achievement is unprecedented in history, and it is easy to forget the enormous steps it took to reach this point. However, we may now be on the verge of creating something that could fundamentally alter this dynamic—artificial intelligence.

The creation and rise of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to software that performs mental tasks using computer code, replacing neurons with silicon to solve problems. In its early stages, AI was simple and limited, with specialized systems designed for narrow tasks within controlled environments. These early AI systems, akin to the flatworms of 500 million years ago, required human experts to operate and were far from matching human intelligence.

Despite several setbacks in AI research, advancements in computing power and programming techniques eventually led to breakthroughs. By 1997, AI had surpassed human abilities in specific tasks, such as chess, and began to be used for more complex applications. The development of self-learning machines marked a significant turning point. These machines, powered by neural networks, could improve themselves without human intervention, leading to the creation of a new type of AI—capable black boxes of code.

By 2016, AI had achieved remarkable feats, such as defeating the best humans in the game of Go and mastering chess in just four hours by playing against itself. These achievements demonstrated AI's potential to surpass human abilities in narrow tasks. However, it was the advent of ChatGPT and other language models that truly captured the public's imagination. Trained on vast amounts of data from the internet, these models could handle language tasks better than most people, marking a significant step towards more general forms of AI.

The concept of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) represents a critical juncture in the development of AI. Unlike narrow AI, which excels in specific tasks, AGI would possess the ability to learn and perform any task that a human can do. The potential implications of AGI are staggering. If an AGI could master all mental tasks, it could outperform humans in virtually every domain.

AGI could revolutionize science, technology, and society. It could solve fundamental questions of science, invent new technologies, fix climate change, and cure diseases like cancer. However, the risks are equally significant. AGI could be weaponized, used to manipulate social media, or even subvert civilization itself. The creation of AGI could be as transformative as the discovery of fire or electricity, but it could also pose an existential threat to humanity.

The “Intelligence Explosion”

As AGI continues to evolve, there is a possibility that it could trigger an “intelligence explosion”—a rapid, self-reinforcing cycle of improvement that could lead to the emergence of a true superintelligence. This hypothetical being would possess cognitive abilities far beyond human comprehension, potentially reshaping the world in ways we cannot predict.

The prospect of superintelligence raises profound questions about the future of humanity. Will AGI become a benevolent force, guiding humanity to new heights of achievement and prosperity? Or will it become a threat, ushering in a new era of uncertainty and danger? These questions remain unanswered, but one thing is clear: the race to develop ever more powerful AI systems is already underway.

As we hurtle towards an uncertain future, it is crucial that we prepare for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. The creation of AGI could be humanity's final invention—one that determines the fate of our species and the world we have built.

We stand at a crossroads in history. The decisions we make today about the development and deployment of AI will shape the future of our civilization. Whether we harness the power of AI for good or allow it to spiral out of control, one thing is certain: the future is coming, and it will be shaped by the choices we make now.