Why Bitcoin’s Pi Cycle May Fail to Spot the Top in 2025

When you’re looking for measures of Bitcoin’s major cycle peaks, you have to look at the Pi Cycles.

These are extrapolations of two moving averages plotted as lines on a price chart. When those lines cross, they mark the big peaks and bottoms. After crossing, they loop around and cross back again, confirming a major peak (not necessarily “end of the cycle,” however you define it).

Or so the thinking goes.

You can combine these lines in many ways. For simplicity, we’ll use the classic formula based on the 350-day and 111-day moving averages. You can get this for free on TradingView.

Not close at all

On this indicator, Bitcoin’s price is far from a cross. We are nowhere near the top.

BUT.

The crosses get progressively less clear and the lines make smaller loops over time.

As a result, should we follow that pattern, the lines may not cross this time. They may never cross again.

You can see this more clearly in the video below, which is a snippet from an update for my newsletter subscribers.

We are already much higher on traditional on-chain metrics than in past instances where the Pi Cycle has reached a comparable level. Which will be wrong — the metrics or the Pi Cycle?

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top Bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio and connect with him on Tealfeed.