One of the most prominent predictors of his time ignores perhaps the biggest Black Swan of the 21st century – the unprecedented and extremely impactful Bitcoin.
Nasim Taleb's fascination with Bitcoin changed into pure hatred, whilst it actually confirms all of his book theories.
Do we love something because we fully understand it and hate it because it goes against our expectations?
Judging by Taleb's controversial criticism, he doesn't fully understand Bitcoin. And remains disappointed, even if it keeps growing stronger.
Nassim Taleb – The Bitcoin Evangelist
Back in 2018, Nassim published a short paper simply called "Bitcoin." There, he praised its benefits and even called it "the first organic currency." Being rather objective of the technology's downsides, calling them no more than temporary hick-ups that can be overcome.
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Yet, in 2021, his enthusiasm faded drastically.
The man who was so confident and reassuring in his books about antifragile investments now claims that Bitcoin is "worth exactly zero," "a malignant tumor," and resembles more a Ponzi scheme.
Taleb announced the sale of his Bitcoins
Why, in Taleb's opinion, is Bitcoin's price going to zero?
The paper
The main comparative point with gold is an "absorption barrier." It's a moment when the asset becomes zero and will not recover (like a bank account of a player who has gone broke). Taleb is convinced that gold does not have one, unlike Bitcoin.
According to Taleb's mathematical equation: "If there is the tiniest constant probability of hitting an absorbing barrier (causing its value to become 0), then its present value must be 0."
Among the reasons for the "absorption barrier" are the termination of ledger active maintenance, loss of interest in Bitcoin, and technological replacement. The first one is not reasonable because Bitcoin actually doesn't need the constant maintenance of the ledger. It's enough to have
So, what do the real figures show instead? In January, it reached an all-time high of $109,114 before settling at its current $85,000 in 2025 (even after a significant correction). It's infinitely greater than zero.
There's more to come. Bitcoin's total market cap is $1.71 trillion. Global wealth exceeds $400 trillion. If Bitcoin captures just 5% of global wealth (a fraction of what gold represents), each coin would be worth over $1 million.
Can Bitcoin replace fiat currency?
Nassim writes that regular goods trade in Bitcoin requires "a parity in bitcoin-USD of low enough volatility to be tolerable and for variations to remain inconsequential."
Actually, there is a logical solution to Bitcoin's volatility. The higher its market capitalization, the more money it takes to change the price. The more it is used as a medium of exchange, the more arbitrage opportunities appear, which leads to lower volatility.
Moreover, buying goods with Bitcoin is already happening. Some companies allow the purchase of real estate, cars, luxury goods, and travel bookings with Bitcoins.
Taleb's book theories support Bitcoin's viability
Now, let's turn to Taleb's own theories to prove why Bitcoin will live happily ever after.
The eponymous concept described in his book "The Skin of the Game" implies that all participants in the game are meant to share not only the rewards but the risks, too.
Everyone is risking their own skin and, therefore, maintaining the stability of the system – no one is dropping the ball because they have something to lose.
Its scheme is exclusively based on active participants taking risks: miners incur millions of dollars in equipment, hodlers risk their investing funds, and everyone is paying attention (and their bucks) to electricity prices. No central bank to save them in case the system collapses.
The book emphasizes the importance of time as a test of an asset's strength. Specifically saying, "Time is the expert," and it is "the only effective judge of things."
Over the past 12 years since its inception, despite occasional market shakeups, Bitcoin has gained $1,71 trillion in total market capitalization.
Ain't that meant to prove Bitcoin's sustainability for Taleb?
Bitcoin is Taleb's perfect bet
In every Taleb's book, we can find confirmation that Bitcoin is cool. For example, his "barbell strategy." It is when you keep most of your money in super-safe assets while putting a small part in high-risk and high-profit assets. It's exactly about Bitcoin.
As Taleb wrote himself in "Antifragile": "If you have favorable asymmetries, or positive convexity [meaning your potential gains exceed your potential losses], then in the long run you will do reasonably well, outperforming the average". It seems no one can better describe Bitcoin than Taleb! Here, he just assured us that everything will be okay.
And lastly, how he trapped himself. In "Skin in the Game," he says, "Don't tell me what you 'think,' just tell me what's in your portfolio." Meaning that if someone doesn't have an asset in their portfolio, they don't have the right to discuss it. Once, during a TV discussion, he said: "I own no Microsoft stock, I am short on Microsoft stock, hence I can't talk about it." So... why does he estimate Bitcoin at all?
Become richer than Nassim Taleb
The ultimate lesson here isn't about Bitcoin or even Taleb – it's about leveraging information to your advantage. Apply effective principles even when their creator doesn't follow through consistently. Even geniuses can make mistakes.
By investing in Bitcoin, you are applying Taleb's principles better than he is. If Bitcoin continues to grow, you will become a billionaire, while Taleb will suffer from FOMO. Sometimes, the student becomes the teacher.
