The Great Thaw: Predictions for Crypto in 2024

Crypto winter is over. What does the rest of the year hold? I believe 2024 is going to be a pivotal moment in blockchain finally finding mass market product fit.

It’s a bit late in the year to write a prediction post, but given the movements in the crypto market, it feels timely. We were already seeing glimpses of hope in the latter half of 2023 with the price of Bitcoin beginning another ascent and some big NFT sales — perhaps most surprisingly, thanks to Bitcoin ordinals.

Now, with halving imminent, with development on alternative blockchains like Solana, and with the rise of Layer 2s, confidence is rapidly returning.

So, what do I mean by reset?

The product manager — and eternal optimist — in me is hopeful that, this time around, growth and adoption won’t be driven purely on hype and greed but rather on finally, finally living up to the promise of efficiency, ownership, and a better store of value. However, I’m also a realist.

I recognize that, for all the breakneck speeds with which the crypto sector innovates and solves its own problems of scalability or security, it’s surprisingly slow at delivering on that initial promise.

There are many excuses as to why. Regulation has often been cited as the main blocker, with regulators accused of not understanding crypto. Though regulators often appear to work against innovation, the reality is that regulators must defend consumer rights. If the consumer doesn’t understand the risks, they’re the ones who are left out of pocket. And unfortunately, crypto is complex — for all its promises of inclusivity, the barrier to entry remains high.

Web3 Solves Its UX Issues

So, let’s start with an obvious one. I expect that this barrier to lower even further in 2024. While I don’t mean that we’ll achieve full mass market adoption this year, we’re already seeing much easier onboarding into web3 through wallet creation using just an email address.

Paired with the likelihood of another bull run, more and more people will dip their toes into the unknown — but this time, it’s going to be a smoother customer journey, which will result in more conversions.

We’re a long way from when only tech natives could engage with web3. That being said, more work needs to be done to improve user experience — it’s why my job exists, after all. So here’s an easy test. Back in 2020, my then 74-year-old grandfather was asking me about Bitcoin.

I thought this was a sign of mass market adoption. But now, I think the true reflection of mass adoption would be if he finally tries it for himself.

Crypto Begins Delivering Value

It’s our job as product managers, designers, and developers to simplify the process and clearly communicate the value. In doing so, we facilitate access for those traditionally left out of mainstream commerce — the elderly, the marginalized, and the less tech-savvy.

While centralized exchanges had previously attracted these users with intuitive customer journeys, I think the lessons of the past few years have been twofold: consumers are more conscious of who’s controlling their funds, and decentralized services are more focused than ever to get user experience right.

I don’t think we’re anywhere near perfect equilibrium. So, while I do foresee more cases of mismanagement in the future, I think we’re getting closer to a synergy between regulation and innovation. Mostly because I truly believe 2024 is the year crypto will finally begin delivering value.

It’s stating the obvious to say that a lot of hype in the market is driven by greed. But crypto exists for a reason. There was a specific user need — a store of value — that Bitcoin originally tapped into. Other chains were built using similar technology, but for different purposes, whether that be as cross-border payments, in-game currency, micropayments, or more.

Whether you’re a Bitcoin maxi or a degen, there is most likely a reason you prefer one chain over another. What I envision for 2024 is that those reasons will become more pronounced. And that depends entirely on abstraction away from the technology.

Blockchain Fades Into the Background

With all the focus on crypto as a medium of exchange, we often forget that the blockchain — a decentralized ledger — is actually solving non-financial problems as well. It’s being used in healthcare, in agriculture, in real estate, and countless other industries.

But working in the industry, we often forget that the end user doesn’t care how their pain points are being solved, what matters is that they are. I really hope we’ll see more blockchain innovation in non-financial sectors in 2024, but that the story won’t be about the fact that it’s blockchain solutions, but rather how much more efficient and streamlined former processes have become.

NFTs Figure out Digital Copyright

One place we do have to talk about the medium, however, is the NFT space. NFTs have already had their moment in 2021, but many consumers still don’t understand them. In fact, I’ve come to realize that not many people working with NFTs understand them. After all, what are they meant to give to the token holder?

Like with the crypto use cases, NFTs have many variations. They can be used as provenance, as a non-fungible community token, or as a piece of digital property — but when it comes to ownership, the line is blurry. Whenever we talk about web3, we talk about how web1 was read, how web2 was write, and how the latest iteration of the Internet is all about own.

NFTs are meant to be representative of this — otherwise, they’re no significant difference between a digital file and an NFT.

It’s something that big NFT communities like Bored Ape Yacht Club or World of Women state outright. What’s interesting is that the same is not true for Crypto Punks, though it does appear that its updated licensing terms are intended to give owners more monetization rights.

It’s also not the case in the lucrative generative art space. Purchasing an Art Blocks NFT, for instance, does not permit the token holder to sell prints — that right remains with the artist.

As we move towards an increasingly phygital experience, with brands, communities, and artists looking to capture more value out of their NFTs, I believe this will become an even bigger conversation topic in 2024.

I remain optimistic that there’s a way forward that ensures artists receive due compensation for their work while the NFTs remain true to the web3 ethos and enable holders to genuinely own.

These predictions are, of course, in their own way, optimistic — it’s what I would like to see happen. But regardless of whether they come now or later, they are things the burgeoning industry continues to contend with.

If recent market movements are anything to go by, we’re at the beginning of a new bull run, so I see 2024 as the best opportunity to learn from the past, recalibrate, and reach even greater heights in the future.