Predictions for the Future of Startups

1. The AI Model race will hit the wall, and all providers will be roughly on the same level, including the open-source players.

   
   

2. The b2b digital SaaS will be heading toward commoditization, prices will be dropping, and at some point, we may even see the b2c model, where tools are free, but the user is "the product".

   
   

3. Startups in real sectors will be the "next hot thing" for the next 20 years—things like bio, healthcare, agriculture, construction, etc.

The hardware will return since most of these startups will be hardware+software.

4. New platforms will emerge. Right now, deploying an app for healthcare is the same as making an app prior to the iPhone era. One would also have to build one's own device.

We will see all "real world" verticals adopting shared platforms so that startup founders can deploy their apps there.

5. Distribution will mean everything.

The next generation of founders are those who built their audience and then reverse-engineered products & services to supply to the audience.

ChatGPT makes it easier for marketers to learn coding than for coders to learn marketing.

6. Governments will go crazy on IT.

Building platforms/products/tools on top of government APIs will be huge.

Most governments don't have APIs, so this will start by utilizing scrapers. But governments will adopt rules that make everything into APIs so that others can build on top.

7. VC money will totally exit the "pre-seed" stage. Funding pre-seed founders is a form of a negative selection. Betting on those who can't pull off their MVP alone is a recipe for a failed investment. Ofc with some exceptions, such as repeat-founders.

   
   

8. Elon Musk will launch a satellite platform. We will be able to build and deploy our apps there.

   
   

9. Overall, the next 20 years will be the best time to be alive if you're a startup founder or an indie maker, as I am.