Artificial Intelligence Bleeds Into the Future

News — At The Edge — 11/18

Three sets of issues this week —

• Future issues dead ahead — if bad guys win the AI race and there is autonomous weapons war — portend a civilizational blackhole.
• Present issues bleeding into the future — killing extremists does not kill their ideas and NSA cannot control cyberwar — are a real conundrum.
• Old unresolved issues — _c_apitalism and technology are evolving faster than society — indicate socioeconomic problems are metastasizing.

There are articles of mine about these issues you might find of interest:

Our Twilight Zone & What Comes Next *_“You’re traveling through another dimension, a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind.”_medium.com

How Intelligent Are We?_As a species, we call ourselves Homo sapiens, Latin for wise man. An immodest assignation, apropos, perhaps, if merely…_medium.com

The Future By Default_As most everyone knows, the Hawaiian Islands are a beautiful and magical place. In spending most of my life there I…_medium.com

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Future issues dead ahead

Slaughterbots — Autonomous Weapons (7:45 min video) -

Semi-Fictional image of what is imminent

Boston Dynamics’ Atlas Robot Does Backflips (55 sec. video)

Real Today

Artificial intelligence is now an arms race. What if the bad guys win? –

“[Our] machine learning…is pushing the boundaries of what computers can do…[and] like any technology …[can] be used for corrupt means. Adversarial AI (where inputs can be carefully crafted to trick AI systems into misclassifying data) has already been demonstrated…which could have disastrous ramifications for an autonomous vehicle….

[But] what if we have AI itself doing the hacking?…. Cyber criminals are all but sure to get their hands on AI tools…[since] they’re widely available as open software…(be they organized, state-sponsored or simply lone hackers) are engaged in an escalating arms race…[and] we’re only beginning to understand its potential….

AI could grow so intelligent that it becomes something completely beyond our control…[making] an AI arms race sound particularly dangerous….[Yet] Google and Microsoft…feel the opportunities outweigh the risks….

[But]: how will the AI arms race end? Well, one side will win, and there’s a chance that it might not be the good guys. Let that sink in for a minute.” https://medium.com/world-economic-forum/artificial-intelligence-is-now-an-arms-race-what-if-the-bad-guys-win-adb927a0b3fb

Life in 2030: these are the 4 things experts can’t predict -

“[1970] Alvin Toffler predicted… rise of the internet, the sharing economy…and the broader social confusions…about technology….Here are some of the uncertainties [ahead in 2030]….

• Can we master greater connectivity?….[T]he internet will be everywhere…less visible…[using] voice, igniting an unprecedented expansion of knowledge and learning…. The level of coordination and coding required to stitch the Internet of Things together is orders of magnitude more complicated than [before]….[Many] things will break and no one will know how to fix them. Bad actors will be able to achieve societal disruptions at scale….
• Will we create more meaningful work?….Many institutions now embrace teaching [online]…[soon] monitored by artificial intelligence systems that assess student performance….[Results] depends on the talents rewarded by the next economy…[like] social and emotional intelligence, creativity, collaborative activity, abstract and systems thinking, complex communication skills, and the ability to thrive in diverse environments. It is unclear whether American schools and universities can re-orient to emphasizing these non-technical skills.
• Can trust and truth be revived?….When trust is absent, all kinds of societal woes unfold [so]…considerable concern that the way people use the internet is degrading trust….Preferences for…information that reinforces their views make people vulnerable to [how] tools can identify, target and manipulate them….[Need] new ways to fight back, at internet speed.
• How much can social and organizational innovation alleviate new problems? With so much upheaval…[need] new ways for people to collaborate to solve problems…from micro-niche issues to macro-global affairs…. New laws and court battles…such as: Who owns what information? Who can use and profit from information? When something goes wrong with an information-processing system…who is responsible? Where is the right place to draw the line between data capture — or surveillance — and privacy? What kinds of personal information can be legitimately considered when assessing someone’s employment, creditworthiness or insurance status? Who oversees the algorithms that decide what happens in society?”

https://medium.com/world-economic-forum/life-in-2030-these-are-the-4-things-experts-cant-predict-fadeaf787f1b

Present issues bleeding into the future

Ben Ferencz: The lessons not learned from warfare -

“[Ferencz] is the last surviving prosecutor at the Nazi Nuremberg trials…[and] helped liberate the death camps of Europe….[Says] 70 years after the end of World War Two, many lessons have still not been learned….

[In particular] wars made murderers out of decent people who were trying to protect their religion, nationality or economic security. ‘We have not learned that you cannot kill an ideology with a gun.” http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-39432100/ben-ferencz-the-lessons-not-learned-from-warfare

Jihadism and far-right fanaticism viewed as responses to the same malaise -

“[Seems] these deadly phenomena are two sides of the same coin…[with] both the failure of the liberal democratic order to inspire anyone to defend it, and the insidious attractiveness of ideologies which challenge that order.

What makes these ideologies appealing is…the strong collective identity [and]…peer groups that promise their own members such admiration that it can seem like sufficient reason to lay down one’s life. By contrast [few]… feel inclined to give up their lives for democracy….Statements by Western leaders…that ‘our values will prevail’ have been glib….

[It’s] not a ‘clash of civilizations’…but civilization's unraveling, as young people…flail about in search of a social identity that gives personal significance and glory. Both jihadism and white-nativist fascism have successively presented themselves as answers to that search….

Among today’s jihadists and far-right fanatics, there is an apocalyptic belief that a final reckoning with their opponents is [inevitable]…[and] should be accelerated…[thus] almost any act of violence can be justified’….

[Western elites] underestimate the threat posed by both kinds of extremism…[and] recent surge of jihadism and xenophobic ethno-national populism were just atavistic blips in the ineluctable progress of globalization’….

[T]hat mainstream Muslim leaders should be even more energetic in denying…legitimacy to terrorism, and in offering an attractive alternative vision of their faith. But what of the historically Christian world? White supremacists may…claim to be fighting for Christian (or even Judeo-Christian) values.

But it surely behooves anybody…to be ultra-careful not to give any sort of cover to nativist fanaticism. And to offer a compelling, alternative account of which Western values are actually worth defending.” https://www.economist.com/blogs/erasmus/2017/11/versions-nihilism

Charlie Rose — David Sanger (12 min. video) –

A report on a serial leak of cyber-weapons at the N.S.A.

David Sanger - Charlie Rose_A report on a serial leak of cyberweapons at the N.S.A._charlierose.com

Old unresolved issues

Steering the economy toward growth –

“Federal Reserve [regulates]…economy so that there isn’t too much inflation or high unemployment…[and] primarily relies upon a single control valve — adjusting interest rates charged to banks…[with] little impact [recently**]….**

[It’s] it is not enough to consider the overall activity of the economy…[and] must consider two dominant flows…[wages] to buy products and services…[and investment] in new equipment and facilities to produce goods and services_…_.

As the economy grows, the flows…have to be balanced….[But] a single control mechanism cannot both lead to growth and achieve balance…[so] like a car with no steering, we keep running back into the guardrail beyond which the economy does not work….

Before 1980 too much money was being injected into the Labor….Consumers had more demand than investors could supply, and inflation was on the rise. After 1980, we…favored investors…[by] cutting taxes on investments….a good idea, but it went too far and has remained in place for too long….Before 1980, consumers saved money….After 1980, consumer debt increased…[while] investors who borrowed before 1980 and saved afterwards….[Result] consumer debt and investor savings are now in the trillions of dollars….

[T]he dramatic rise of inequality in recent decades is a direct impediment to economic growth….[So] the usefulness of the Fed’s preferred mechanism has been exhausted….Today interest rates are basically at zero…because of the ongoing need to promote economic activity in the face of deepening debt…[and] quantitative easing…may not be reliable over the long term….

If nothing is changed, the ineffective zigzagging from recession to recession will continue or get worse_…_.It doesn’t help to increase…savings of the wealthy through more tax cuts…[rather] low and middle income earners, increasing wages and social benefits and relieving debt for Labor will fuel new consumption, allowing for increased returns on investment.

Alleviating the strain of inequality will restore balance to the economy, leading to beneficial growth for everyone…[with] several possible levers for change, including tax reform, consumer and student debt relief, minimum wage increases, and adjustments to entitlement programs.” https://mystudentvoices.com/steering-the-economy-toward-growth-8f208a8b8a7b

Andrew Ng Wants a New ‘New Deal’ to Combat Job Automation –

“[Former] head of AI for Chinese search giant Baidu and…Google’s deep-learning Brain project, knows…artificial intelligence is coming for plenty of jobs….

[Suggests] updated version of the New Deal…programs that invested in…[getting] displaced workers to learn new job skills….[AI already] transform the industry’…[and] bring even more profound changes to job markets, and we will need a way to continue to adapt to them.” https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609326/andrew-ng-wants-a-new-new-deal-to-combat-job-automation/?utm_campaign=tech_review&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social

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May you live long and prosper!Doc Huston