Bitcoin’s surge past $94,000 might just be the opening act. The real story of a bull market? It’s written in the fine print of on-chain metrics.
As Bitcoin reclaims the $94K again, altcoins are rallying across the board. But does the underlying blockchain data confirm a full-blown bull run? By dissecting trading volume, user activity, and wallet distribution, we uncover the market’s hidden signals.
Transaction Flow
Over the last 24 hours, according to bitsCrunch data, total trading volume across all networks hit $39.9 billion, with 7.2 million transactions processed by 3.03 million unique addresses involving 13,800 tokens. Since July 2023, transaction volume has steadily climbed from a low of 2 million to 10 million, accelerating sharply after June 2024. This surge reflects deepening market liquidity, despite a temporary dip in transaction counts this March. Short-term momentum remains bullish.
Who’s Driving the Action?
On-chain trader activity charts reveal volatile participation since 2023. While monthly active traders plummeted below 2 million in October 2023, the metric rebounded to 8 million by late 2024 and stabilized near yearly highs in January 2025—aligning with classic “recovery-to-expansion” market cycles. Notably, growth isn’t linear. According to bitsCrunch data, mid-quarter dips (May, August) suggest profit-taking or sentiment shifts, while breaking news events temporarily swayed institutional and retail sentiment. Yet with daily active traders still at 3.03 million—just one-third of peak levels—this metric warrants close watching.
The Whale-Retail Divide
BitsCrunch’s wallet distribution highlights crypto’s stark wealth concentration: 1,052 “Mega Whale” addresses hold over
100 million each. This 80/20 split mirrors traditional finance, where whales accumulate early, followed by retail traders amplifying price action. Mid-tier “Dolphins” ($1M–$10M) and “Fish” ($10K–$100K) also play critical roles, injecting liquidity that sustains market moves.
Ethereum’s Slide and the Layer 1 Wars
Polygon maintains steady traction with ~4,000 daily transactions, but Ethereum tells a different story. Despite price resilience, its on-chain activity plummeted in early 2025—a lagging indicator of fading dominance. As competing Layer 1 blockchains gain traction, Ethereum’s decline in activity could reshape the market landscape, forcing investors to rethink scalability narratives.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s $94K rebound and altcoin rallies are eye-catching, but on-chain metrics reveal a nuanced reality: Trading activity hasn’t yet matched previous bull market intensity. With regulatory developments and policy shifts looming in 2025, both whales and retail traders are dancing cautiously.
New narratives and sectors will emerge, but savvy investors focus on marginal data shifts—like whale accumulation patterns or sudden liquidity drains—to avoid getting caught in hype cycles. In a market where 1% of wallets control outsized influence, staying rational means letting on-chain data separate signal from noise.
Stay curious. Stay skeptical. And always verify the chain.
