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Foreword: You may not be aware — particularly if you live in the United States— but the global economy is now entering uncharted territory as negative interest rates become reality in Europe and elsewhere. Suddenly the financial media (sponsored in no small measure by global banks) are working overtime to ‘educate’ the masses as to why the practice of paying your bank to hold your cash makes perfect sense. (They conveniently forget to mention that they will immediately lend your money to other customers, but good luck getting negative rates as a borrower!) Amidst this insanity, I will attempt to explain whether it makes sense for both professional and retail investors to own Bitcoin and other digital assets as a hedge against the inevitable destructive force of negative interest rates. TL;DR: The answer is ‘yes, it does make sense!’ However, it’s important to understand the reasons why. For that, let’s continue… ============================= After trading it for the past six years, Bitcoin has become such a dominant theme in my life that I often forget how short that timeframe really is. In fact, Bitcoin and the broader cryptoasset class have only ever existed in an era of economic expansion. At some point we will reach an inflection point, and I believe that we are now approaching that at the pace of the proverbial fly against a Ferrari’s windshield. When the inevitable recession finally occurs, many of our current theories about Bitcoin’s durability and use-cases will — finally — be tested. Bitcoin’s unveiling in 2009, before the chaos of the previous year’s financial crisis had passed, coincided with the start of one of the longest sustained bull runs in modern history. This new class of crypto assets was designed to act as an inflation-proof store of value, with censorship-resistant features that would prevent central bankers and politicians from manipulating its supply and value to print their way to prosperity at the expense of savers. It is no coincidence that Bitcoin has experienced jaw-dropping gains in value, and captured the entire world’s attention, even as the political class has continued an unprecedented decade-long experiment to ‘stimulate’ the global economy through currency manipulation and capital controls. Yet despite their increasingly frantic efforts, inflation in the developed world has not only failed to materialize. In fact, we now find ourselves on the brink of broad-based deflation on a global scale, potentially surpassing levels not seen since the Arab oil embargoes of the 1970s. Rising BTC value is highly correlated with rapid growth in negative-yielding debt. Source: Bloomberg, T Rowe Price To be clear, I am not forecasting that deflation is imminent — least of all here in the United States. However, as a professional investor who has high conviction in Bitcoin’s viability as “digital gold”, that is to say as an inflation-resistant store of value, it is important to consider the implications of a deflationary environment for an asset class that has never experienced one. This is certainly true in light of the past few days, when Germany issued a negative-yielding 30-year Bund and the President of the United States declared the Chairman of the Federal Reserve an “enemy” for adopting an (allegedly) insufficiently dovish policy. What would be the impact of deflation on Bitcoin — which is, by nature, a deflationary asset? As perceived ‘risky’ assets, will demand for cryptoassets increase as investors move out on the risk curve in search of return? Are there other features of crypto assets that are of particular relevance? And, even though crypto was designed to be a global, borderless asset, will the market response be consistent globally? Thinking Linearly Within our fund, my partner and I are followers and disciples of Oaktree’s . As one of the greatest thinkers in the investment world, Marks is perhaps best known for his attempts to consider second- and even third-order consequences of external factors and policy decisions within his investment process. With that in mind, here are some of the truths that we consider to be self-evident in the emerging world of crypto: Howard Marks In a deflationary world, where dollar- or euro-denominated investors have no fear of inflation in their base currency, the case for holding assets like gold or Bitcoin will be reduced. Deflation reduces demand for inflation hedges. To what extent this will impact price is impossible to judge, especially when considered in combination with additional factors (see below). However, this will surely impact the thinking of institutional asset managers who control that now-famous ‘wall of money’ that crypto bulls are counting on to drive prices higher. 2. The flip side to this is that even in a deflationary environment, NIRP is going to convince many investors — perhaps foolishly — that the time is nigh to buy risk assets (e.g. junk bonds, WeWork IPO, cannabis stocks). However, Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) increases demand for alternatives to cash. For those who view Bitcoin as a risk asset, and for those who view it as a hedge against inflation, the conclusion will be the same — it will be time to smash the ‘buy’ button. Coming soon to your local bank. Source: Reddit 3. Even though Bitcoin has emerged as 2019’s star performer in crypto, it is not the only potential beneficiary in an economic downturn. It seems equally clear that — that class of digital assets designed to maintain parity with a fiat currency or basket of fiat currencies — are also likely to gain enormous traction. Stablecoins stand to benefit. stablecoins There are dozens of stablecoin projects today, with a wide range of quality. That being said, we believe that certain high-quality stablecoins may trade above par on a sustained basis. If we had to pick two, our favorites are Trust Token’s TrueUSD [disclosure: I personally (not through my fund) invested in TT’s Coinlist offering last year] and Circle’s USDC.* Stablecoins will become coveted if (1) as is beginning to happen in Europe, banks charge you interest or fees to keep your money on deposit; and (2) your mattress does not strike you as a suitable storage mechanism for your hard-earned currency. In a world where banks bill you for storing your cash (only to lend it out at much more profitable rates), stablecoins offer a new alternative that could prove massively disruptive to the banks’ latest scheme via the ability to safely hold an appreciating currency without paying for the privilege. In this scenario, the utility of your local bank is limited to the security that it provides through an old-fashioned safe deposit box where you can store your hardware wallet. The irony and humor of this eventuality is thick. This may sound simplistic, but the fact remains that high-net-worth individuals would happily forego modest deposit insurance coverage (if it is even available) to avoid large fees and the prospect of a bail-in if things go south. The fiasco that greeted depositors of Cyprus banks in 2013 is a stark reminder that governments will not hesitate to confiscate the wealth of their constituents in a crisis — that is, if they can access it. 4. On the other hand, the majority of alt-coins — cryptocurrencies and the broader universe of digital assets beyond Bitcoin — will likely see a very different fate. In short, the most charitable thing we can say about alt-coins is that they face a challenging future . Most alt-coins are going to zero (there, we said it). as an investment We are not universally bearish, as there will undoubtedly be some winners. We expect at least one privacy-focused token — most likely Monero or ZCash — to perform well, and perhaps a handful of utility tokens that demonstrate utility and a compelling reason to hold them long term, rather than simply acquiring and rapidly disposing of them at the time of use. actual We also believe strongly that dApps — decentralized applications, or any application that runs on a peer-to-peer network, instead of a single server — will eventually thrive, however it less clear to us how many of them will ultimately require native tokens. In reality, most alt-coins owe their existence to Bitcoin’s success, and the era of ultra-low interest rates and asset price inflation that we have seen over the past decade. To paraphrase Warren Buffett — which we do sparingly, given his overtly negative opinion on crypto — a deflationary environment will be the ultimate opportunity to see who has been swimming naked after the tide goes out. For the many alternative cryptoassets that possess no intrinsic value or meaningful use case, that would unequivocally include their HODLers. Of course, for those of us who like to actively trade these assets, the impending train wreck will in itself be a great opportunity. 5. The momentum behind Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) is about to accelerate dramatically. Their use-case is obvious. They are an opportunity for governments to circumvent domestic commercial banks — which in many emerging and frontier economies are barely functional — and ‘helicopter-drop’ money directly into the hands of consumers. Centralized sovereign currencies are coming — mostly bad, but also good. Additionally, CBDCs can enable governments to further stimulate their economies by taking interest/fees on these holdings just like a commercial bank might do. If you think this sounds like a utopian outcome, you should consider just how much control these schemes will place in the hands of totalitarian governments like China’s. While the growth of CBDCs will require substantially more time to play out, and may ultimately reduce demand for stablecoins in the medium term, we believe that their market adoption will ultimately prove to be a huge positive for the cryptoasset class as they serve to introduce and acclimate the general public to digital assets. This view, of course, is broadly similar to that which has been recently articulated by many commentators on the merits of Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency. Whether Facebook’s ethics-free approach to business is better for the market than heavy-handed central bank policy is another matter altogether. This movie could be the next ‘Reservoir Dogs’ (i.e. where all of the characters are villains)… Second-order effects In adopting a “Marks-ian” thought process, we surmise that there are a host of potentially even more significant second-order implications for cryptoassets if a deflationary environment comes to pass. 1. In our view, many Western, and in particular US-based, investors lack an appreciation of what life is like in emerging markets. The two of us have a combined total of over twenty years living and working in developing economies. Things that we in the US take for granted — a relatively stable currency, rule of law and cultural norms that limit the ability of banks or the government to engage in outright theft — are simply absent for the majority of people worldwide. Bitcoin demand will be driven from emerging markets — not the United States. Put simply, we believe it is no coincidence that Bitcoin’s most effective early evangelist was an Argentine, Wences Casares, and that leading crypto mining equipment manufacturers such as Bitfury and Bitmain were founded by individuals from the former Soviet Union and China. These individuals are all too familiar with places where the foundation for sustained freedom and prosperity did not exist. Why is this important? A deflationary spiral in the West may not translate to a deflationary spiral in emerging markets. In fact, it could trigger the opposite. Such a descent into deflation would almost certainly destroy Western consumer activity, particularly for discretionary imports from emerging markets, as the incentive to save suddenly presents itself. Emerging economies would rapidly tank, and their central banks would duly engage in vigorous bouts of money printing to attempt to prop up domestic demand. Dollar-denominated loans would become more difficult for emerging markets to service — a disaster for countries like Turkey and Mexico. A crisis of confidence would unfold with respect to their local currencies, and investors would race for the exits. Hyperinflation would almost certainly follow. Even if events do not play out precisely in this manner, the fragility of developing economies will be difficult to understate if global economic chaos ensues. Many of the IMF’s favorite debtors are simply one-trick export-oriented ponies with limited domestic demand drivers, and populations who have been burned more times than they can count. People with this life experience are VERY sensitive to economic changes and will take action immediately if they sense they are descending — once again — into an economic vortex. As for their response, well that’s fairly simple: . In the developing world, if you are an individual consumer or small- business owner, your ability to actually buy and hold dollars or euros on deposit is limited. And even if you could, you would be compelled to hold them in the same domestic banks that you don’t trust in the first place and that are getting crushed by the economic woes that you’re seeking to avoid. Don’t believe me? Talk to a Russian over thirty years of age, or a Cypriot over twenty. Good luck buying physical gold from your local jewelry shop; the lines out front will be nearly as long as those trying to withdraw funds from failed British bank Northern Rock in 2007. they will seek safe havens where they can find them I was working on a London trading floor in 2007 when Northern Rock went bust. I will never forget the panicked look on its depositors’ faces as they queued up to retrieve what they could. So then, what options will be available to anyone with an internet connection? And the obvious answer is: digital assets like Bitcoin. And while the notion of buying stablecoins in the developing world may make a lot of sense, our suspicion is that this concept may, bizarrely, seem too foreign to people for whom Bitcoin is at least a known commodity. Our bet: should deflation emerge throughout the West, the global economic crisis it produces will spark unprecedented buying demand for Bitcoin in the emerging world. 2. . While we believe strongly that Bitcoin, in the long-run, is the ultimate safe haven asset — a better form of gold — the fact remains that today it has a bifurcated identity in the minds of investors. Depending on your worldview, it is either: Bitcoin holds advantages for its fans and skeptics a. A highly volatile and risky asset that offers no utility other than as a tool for speculation. This is what we would characterize as the critics’ view (best known to readers of the Financial Times); or b. Digital Gold: An inflation proof store of value: what we consider the proponents’ view 3. . There is in fact a further third piece to the puzzle that is not necessarily inconsistent with either of the above but also is critical to Bitcoin’s identity as an investment: the relatively lower correlation, and in several instances a high negative correlation, when compared to other assets. Lower correlations offer distinct benefits for any well-managed portfolio The below chart tracks BTC’s performance relative to the S&P 500 on the days of the latter’s biggest moves in 2019 year-to-date: Source: Coinbase, FRED, Kosmos research There is no discernible pattern in BTC’s price action during a significant move in the S&P 500. This offers intrinsic appeal for anyone constructing a portfolio and seeking to optimize risk-adjusted returns. Money managers with professional experience stretching back to 2008’s global financial crisis remember all too well that supposedly uncorrelated traditional assets suddenly found their correlations trending rapidly higher as the bottom caved in. It is possible that Bitcoin may behave similarly during the next crisis, and offer little or even no diversification, however we would argue that to own at least a small relative position in Bitcoin is the ultimate asymmetric bet in this market; the cost of taking that bet is minimal, and the potential upside if it proves uncorrelated is significant. Therefore, these various elements of Bitcoin’s identity should be appealing to sophisticated investors, even amidst a deflationary environment. Conclusion In summary, it is not at all clear that a deflationary environment will necessarily eliminate institutional investor appetite for Bitcoin in the West and, in fact, second and third order effects in emerging markets may well generate a substantial aggregate increase in Bitcoin demand as people there seek readily available, liquid safe-havens. Moreover, while a worldwide economic meltdown is hardly something we’re rooting for, there are some potential salutary benefits for digital assets beyond strengthening Bitcoin, namely a clearing of the decks with respect to dubious altcoin projects that give the asset class a bad name together. An additional indirect benefit may also be the advent of government sponsored CBDCs that will ultimately introduce the widest possible audience to cryptoasset technology, and set the stage for long-term mass adoption. *As always, DYOR! (Do Your Own Research) ======================================= I work at Kosmos Capital Management , which actively trades the emergent class of digital assets. Follow me on Twitter @kvirgil ======================================= DISCLAIMER: Nothing in this column is intended as investment advice and you definitely should not interpret it as such. Don’t rely on my advice, or for that matter anyone else’s advice, when making investment decisions. Doing your own research is the key to success in any market. =======================================

Bitcoin in the Age of Deflationary Policies

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Blockchain is a buzzword that is starting to lose its buzz. The word is thrown around constantly, and often people have little idea what it means. But the technology does have value, and it doesn’t just have to be an esoteric term. Instead, the blockchain has the capability disrupt and change a number of industries. . While card payments may be convenient for shoppers, the merchants have been footing the bill for this convenience with the high processing fees charged by the card processing intermediaries. The card payments industry is one of them Since blockchain technology is based on the core principle of “decentralization,” it provides an opportunity to breakthrough the multiple “middlemen fees” with an alternative low-fee digital payments network. And, besides convenience, merchants can share these savings in processing fees with their shoppers to elevate their experience to a whole new level. Let’s look at how blockchain can help improve the card payments industry, and, if it’s so great, why it hasn’t already. Problems the industry currently faces The card payments industry has a lot of issues right now. It’s huge industry dominated by a handful of companies that see billions of transactions a month. One of the biggest payment card companies, Visa, . handles around 150 million transactions every day But although things seem to be working in order, there is a lot that can be improved for the average merchant. For example, . A card transaction requires the buyer to effectively authorize the seller to ‘pull’ a payment from their account, passing through several financial intermediaries in the process. A typical card transaction, besides the merchant and the cardholder, involves at least four parties (commonly referred to as merchant services providers). These include the acquirer (the financial institution that enables payments to the merchant), the payment gateway, the interchange (e.g., Visa, MasterCard or Amex), and the issuer (the card holder’s bank). merchants currently face high transaction fees With the card payment system currently in place, all fees go to these intermediaries. If a shopper is to buy a good worth $100 using a debit card as opposed to cash, these intermediaries will take between 1.5 to 3.5 percent, which means the merchant receives as little as $96.50. The problem is not just with the card payments, either. . Again, this can prove costly over the year — especially in a . Many companies who now offer “mobile payments” as an alternative to card payments still charge almost the same in processing fees world that’s becoming less dependent on cash Despite the relative efficiency of these existing systems, users are still vulnerable to manipulations and risks. Also, these services are not offered for free by the processors, as maintenance fees and other service charges do exist. These fees add up over the course of the financial year. This brings us on to the next point: . Chargeback fees occur when a customer disputes a transaction with a merchant. If the customer is right in his dispute, the card company takes the money from the merchant’s bank, rightly puts in back in the customer’s account and a fee is incurred. Problems include unauthorized transactions, goods never delivered or delivered late. Card companies can charge over $20 per dispute, which adds up over time, costing merchants potentially thousands over the year. chargeback fees What solutions can blockchain bring to the table? So let’s look at how blockchain can make the merchant’s life easier and potentially disrupt the card payments industry. Firstly, blockchain, as you are probably aware, is a decentralized technology. Therefore, if we were to introduce blockchain to the table of the card payments industry, many middlemen could be cut out of the picture. And with these middlemen out of the picture, transactions fees would be, too. This would effectively slice the transaction overhead and even facilitate what is known as “micro-transactions” — small transactions conducted with near-zero charges and instant verification. Likewise with chargeback fees. . There is no central authority. Rather, everything is held in a ledger. The middleman who wants to take a cut is eliminated and this benefits not just the customer but merchants as well, and makes chargeback a thing of the past. Payments in a blockchain system allow the customer to decide on how much money is given, and merchants are unable to take more International payments could also be made easier, as many banks charge fees for using their services abroad. . And smaller merchants, who previously wouldn’t be keen on international sales due to cross-border fees, would be given the chance to flourish. A blockchain payment system would allow shoppers to buy things with ease, whenever or wherever they are in the world If blockchain solutions are so great, why haven’t they been taken up already? Photo by on William White Unsplash Well, for starters, using a blockchain system for payments would likely entail cryptocurrencies. And both retailers shoppers are confused by such a system. As mentioned before, although it’s slowly gaining traction in the mainstream, blockchain is still esoteric, and retailers are keen to stick to what they are familiar with. and V is the main problem that is putting off shoppers and retailers. The price of cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and frequently experiences a rise or fall of over 10 percent in just one day. For this reason, the use of cryptocurrencies usually involves a lot of guesswork as well as trend research — something neither shoppers nor merchants want to risk. olatility C is another problem. The current blockchain and cryptocurrencies payment solutions are designed for the early enthusiasts, with little emphasis on user friendliness. A mass adoption would call for a system as seamless as a card payment, Apple Pay or Google Pay. Shoppers — and even merchants — often aren’t too familiar with what is going on in the background. They wouldn’t have to understand the technology; it would just have to be much more . This is another reason why it hasn’t quite disrupted the industry just yet. omplexity accessible A is yet another hurdle. Currently, cryptocurrencies aren’t used widely. And places to spend them are even more scarce. If someone has money which can be spent through the blockchain, they are often unable to spend it for everyday purchases. vailability (or Accessibility) S is a final problem. The early blockchain protocols (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) are quite constrained by the number of transactions they can process concurrently, and the cost for committing a transaction on the blockchain network is too high. But this limitation is quickly fading away with the emergence of next-gen blockchain infrastructure technologies like Stellar, Ripple and IOTA which were designed with the requirements of a highly scalable and cost-efficient payment system in mind. calability There is room for it. It will just take a while to be taken on board Blockchain technology has enormous potential as a way to securely and transparently process transactions and effectively manage data. A scalable blockchain digital payment solution can offer merchants an alternative way to accept payments without the heavy fees charged by the banks and payment processing companies on transactions and chargebacks, allowing them to provide a better value and experience to their customers. Sarthak is the founder of TillBilly , a forward-looking startup working on an innovative solution to bring blockchain based point of sale payments solution to the mainstream retail.

How Blockchain Can Disrupt The Card Payments Industry — And Why It Hasn’t Already

Cryptoasset valuation is a fairly new and iterating practice. Investors often have strong and varying opinions on how to value projects in the emerging asset class. The assets are constantly under experimentation and development, making a fixed model methodology challenging. Traditional market indicators such as market capitalization and supply are often flawed or manipulated. The fundamental side provides even less clarity as debates ensue over scaling, decentralization, PoW and PoS, governance structures, privacy, and security. There is no consensus on how to properly evaluate and value a cryptoasset. However, there is one statement that can be agreed upon: evaluating cryptoassets requires a deeper look under the hood. The obvious price, rank, market capitalization, and trading volume metrics do not paint a full or accurate picture. Most cryptoassets are developed on public blockchains with transparent network activity. This results in a wealth of information available to collect, dissect, and process. The data can be examined to gather valuable information such as network size, health, and security. Metrics such as on-chain transaction volume, average fees on the network, hashrates, active addresses, inflation, block size, and block difficulty provide an insight on what is occurring on the blockchain. Furthermore, block explorers provide even more essential data from top token holders, transfer activity, pending transactions, and exchange list volume. This is an overwhelming amount of information to find, nonetheless consume, considering there are over 1500+ cryptoassets currently deployed (3 of which are probably legitimate). Fortunately, there are some spectacular, , resources available to students, engineers, traders, and analysts. Below are some bookmark-worthy data and visualization resources for those looking to dig deeper into a cryptoasset. free The resources are grouped into following categories: market data, blockchain data, ICO and token data, and some fun data visualizations. Market Data 1. ( ): The favorite among the cryptoasset ranking resources. Within 6 months of launch, OnchainFX has partnered with Bloomberg and Galaxy Digital Capital Management to provide their data on a new cryptoasset index. Unlike other cryptoasset ranking websites, OnchainFX offers an extensive amount of data points that can be added to the default view. Furthermore, coins are categorized and tagged by market cap size, sector, indexes, daily movers, and more. Visitors also have the ability to “publish view” and share it via a simple URL. OnchainFX www.onchainfx.com potential scams A customized view including the basic data + Y2050 marketcap, Y2050 supply, ATH, % down from ATH from OnchainFX 2. ( ): Bitcoinity provides exchange and market data displayed in chart view with the ability to export to CSV/XLSX. Data points include Bitcoin trading volume, exchange rankings, exchange trades per minute, bid/ask spreads, and some blockchain data including hashrate, mining difficulty , and number of transactions. Bitcoinity doesn’t offer an enormous set of data points but the data visualization is effective and elegant. Bitcoinity data.bitcoinity.org Bitcoin trading volume by exchange on Bitcoinity 3. ( ): For a high level view and ranking of cryptoassets. CoinMarketCap is the default choice among retail investors looking for a quick glance at high level cryptoasset ranking and market data. It receives so much traffic that it can CoinMarketCap www.coinmarketcap.com move markets. The CoinMarketCap landing page 4. ( ): Coin360, previously CryptoMaps, is a simple price activity heat map. The size of the squares can be set to market capitalization or volume and the performance periods can be customized to the visitors selection. Coin360 www.coin360.io A price activity display of tokens and coins from Coin360 5. ( ): Visualizing cryptoasset correlation data can be useful to observe how cryptoassets are moving in relation to one another. Sifr Data provides charts, visuals, and simulations on some of the larger assets. Sifr Data www.sifrdata.com Track cryptoasset price correlation movements on Sifr Data Additional resources: , Coingecko Nomics Blockchain Data 1. ( ): The team at coin metrics have developed a phenomenal resource for data enthusiasts. Data points include price, market cap, exchange volume, NVT, volatility on returns, and ROI. The on-chain data points are even more extensive with transaction count, on-chain transaction volume, average fees, active addresses, difficulty, and more. Visitors have the option of downloading the entire data set or to view it on the customizable charting tool. Traders and analysts can use the advanced charting tool to track standard or custom indicators. Coin metrics is one of my go-to resources to observe cryptoasset network and market activity. The real fun begins when these cryptoassets begin to decouple from one another. Coin Metrics www.coinmetrics.io Charting the on-chain fees (USD) for BCH, LTC, ZEC, XMR on Coin Metrics 2. ( ): Similar to Coin Metrics, a clean website with charts and data. The charts include Bitcoin height, hash rate, inputs/day, outputs/day, mining difficulty, and more. Lightning network data is also available, from nodes, channels, capacity, and clustering. Bitcoin Visuals www.bitcoinvisuals.com The dashboard view displays tx outputs, median fee, mempool, blockspeed, hash rate, and more on Bitcoin Visuals 3. ( ): Bloxy is a great resource for token data on the Ethereum blockchain. Data can be sorted by ERC-20, ERC-721, ERC-223, ERC-827 tokens. Specific tokens on the Ethereum blockchain can be examined with data points including number of transfers, unique sender/receivers, and volume. The page provides visibility on top tokens, top tokens by number of transfers, statistics by different token types, and more. The IC nd an ections provide clean, data charts and visualizations. Bloxy www.bloxy.info token dynamics O analysis and trends a alytical reports s Ethereum token data from Bloxy 4. ( ): Blockchair aims to be a blockchain powered search engine for Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Ethereum. Example search queries include “The biggest BTC block”, “The biggest BCH blocks”, and “$1 million BCH transactions.” Blockchair is a unique and fun way to play with blockchain data. Blockchair www.blockchair.com The blockchair search engine powered by blockchain data 5. ( ): Bitinfocharts provides data and charts for a number of coins and tokens including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Zcash, and Monero. The comparison charting tool can be used to compare blockchain hash rates, transactions, fees, active addresses, and more. Market and correlations data is also available. Bitinfocharts www.bitinfocharts.com Market cap, transaction, active addresses and other data pie charts from Bitinfocharts 6. ( ): Etherscan is excellent block explorer and data hub for all things Ethereum. The can be used to view all ERC 20 tokens sorted by volume and market cap. Token transfers, holders, exchanges, and contracts can all be viewed from this tracker. The charts and statistics section has an assortment of charted data from address growth, supply growth, hashrate growth, and pending transaction pool. Individual decentralized relayer data is also available in the . Etherscan www.etherscan.io token tracker DEX tracker EOS token holder information displays the top token holders in the network. From Etherscan. 7. ( ): Blockchain.info is a Bitcoin block explorer which provides block, mining, network and wallet activity statistics. The statistics dashboard provides excellent summary of the Bitcoin blockchain in table and chart format. The block explorer can be used to view wallet activity and movement. Blockchain.info www.blockchain.info The statistics page on Blockchain.info includes average block size, transactions per day, mempool size, and more. 7. ( ): Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin mempool statistics and charts. Charts include unconfirmed transaction count, pending transaction fees, and mempool size. Johoe’s Bitcoin Mempool Statistics www.jochen-hoenicke.de Unconfirmed transaction count from Johoe’s Bitcoin Mempool Additional resources: , , , , , , , , , Amberdata Blockspur DappRadar Blockpath CryptoID Blockchain Explorers Blockseer 0x tracker Transactionfee.info Trivial Coin Dance ICO and Token Data 1. ( ): Coindesk provides an ICO tracker with data including all time cumulative ICO funding, monthly new ICO funding, size vs number of ICO’s, and annual funding totals. Coindesk ICO Tracker www.coindesk.com/ico-tracker The Coindesk ICO tracker. A tool to visualize annual and monthly ICO data. 2. ( ): Token data can be used as a resource to quickly look up a token, its ICO status, USD raised, sale price, current price, and return. TokenData www.tokendata.io ICO’s sorted by highest return on Token Data 3. ( ): and the team at Messari are working on a project aimed at delivering transparency in the token world. Messari is a work in progress but I’m a fan of what I see so far. Token profiles in the Messari open source library provide clean and concise summaries. Messari www.messari.io TwoBitIdiot The Messari open source library Additional resources: , Elementus token sale history Token Bubbles Data Visualizations 1. ( ): A clever blockchain visualization with live Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash transactions in an animated highway. Vehicles size and speed correlate to block size and transaction speed. Lightning network transactions are also included. TX Highway Cash www.txhighway.cash A live highway visualization displaying Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash transactions from Tx Highway. 2. ( ): Coinlib provides market, exchange, and some blockchain data in clean table and graphical visuals. The section provides a 24 hour fiat and crypto flow visualizations. Coinlib www.coinlib.io global charts A visualization of crypto money flow in the last 24 hours from Coinlib 3. ( ): Satoshi’s Place is a collaborative canvas powered by the lightning network. 1 million pixels are available to purchase to paint at a price of 1 satoshi per pixel. The micro payments are routed through the lightning network. Satoshis Place www.satoshis.place 2.3 million pixels were purchased and drawn today at Satoshis Place 4. ( ): A live map of reachable Bitcoin nodes is available on Bitnodes. Be sure to visit the . Bitnodes bitnodes.earn.com 3D network map A live map of reachable Bitcoin nodes from Bitnodes 5. ( ): Bitforce5 has a live, animated visualization up to 300 linked transactions and addresses. The data is sourced from Blockchain.info and can be viewed by double clicking the icons. Bitforce5 www.bitforce5.com Live Bitcoin activity from Bitforce5 Additional visualizations: , , Visual Blockchain Real time Bitcoin Globe Poketoshi Did I miss something? Ping me on twitter @blockchainjoy

Digging deeper into cryptoassets: data and visualization resources

The freelance economy has taken the world by storm. There could be . Technology is driving much of this growth, with online middleman platforms like Upwork and Fiverr hosting billions of dollars worth of freelance gigs annually. more freelancers than full-time workers in the US in just under ten years Thanks to for support in creating this topic (First platform with proven ICO contractors) agency.howtotoken.com About the author: — Founder of Geekforge.io and Howtotoken.com. Interviewing the top 10,000 worldwide experts who reveal the biggest issues on the way to technological singularity. Join my . Kirill Shilov #10kqachallenge: GeekForge Formula Despite their popularity, these freelance marketplaces have struggled to solve a number of ongoing problems. Making prompt and efficient payments to millions of freelancers in hundreds of different countries is proving to be a real challenge. Ensuring the quality of work delivered to clients is another major headache, as is helping new freelancers get started on a platform. However, a new tech revolution promises to disrupt this industry and deliver solutions to these problems. Blockchain-based alternatives are promising a brighter future for both freelancers and employers with low fees, fast payments, and new incentives that make the experience better for everyone. Let’s take a look to see if these promises are realistic, and if they will be enough to lure employers and freelancers to the new, decentralized way of doing business. The Current State of the Freelance Market There are , bringing in over $1.4 trillion dollars a year. A large found that 70% of freelancers use online marketplaces to find work. It’s a colossal market that’s only getting bigger and hungrier for new ways to connect. 57 million freelancers in the US alone Payoneer survey So, what kinds of work are all these freelancers doing? A quick search for recent posts on Upwork, the largest online freelance platform, gives the following results: 33% Web, mobile, and software development 18% Design and creative 15% Sales and marketing 11% Writing 8% Admin and support 15% Other Types of freelance platforms There are hundreds of online job sites with all sorts of niche offerings. But there are a few broad categories that these platforms fall into. — For any kind of job including hourly, project-based, and even full-time or part-time positions. You can even set up your own team or agency. These types have all the bells and whistles. is a good example of this type of platform. Upwork-like Freelancer.com — For small gigs around $5, where the site gets its name. These are simple, low skilled jobs. has a similar structure. Fiverr-like GigBucks — For high-quality freelancers. These platforms have a rigorous screening process for freelancers who want to sign up. TopTal-like — For niche talent. These freelancers are handpicked by the site’s operators to ensure that they have the skills for a particular niche. Codeable-like The Pros and Cons of Each Platform is packed with all kinds of features, but the real value that the company delivers is in the size of its network. Employers have access to with profiles and ratings, meaning that it’s possible to find someone with the exact skill set they need for a low rate. There are also extra features such as recruit services to help companies find the right talent. Freelancers get an endless browsable database of jobs to apply for, saving time and money in regards to . Upwork millions of freelancers expensive online advertising However, the platform does have a few problems. Its army of freelancers is littered with bad eggs, and employers regularly have to deal with poor quality work and sift through dozens of sub-par applications. Freelancers also constantly have their Upwork profile, business, and income at the mercy of a centralized authority. This can lead to , where a freelancer’s income was taken away instantly and unfairly by the platform operators. unfortunate situations like this one is great for several reasons. You can easily browse their huge catalog of services and know exactly what you’re getting into. You can have a simple task like writing, translating, and logo design finished in hours for only $5. Many freelancers love it too, as there are usually options to upsell clients to additional, higher-value services which can generate significant revenues. Fiverr attempts to tackle the problem of low quality work on open platforms like Upwork. Freelancers are screened and only the top 3% are accepted; work quality is guaranteed. This is attractive for corporations and well-funded startups that want quality, full-time freelancers who are willing to pay well for them. The downside to this model is that by definition, most of the freelance market is left out. Ninety-seven percent of freelancers are never allowed near the platform, and most employers won’t pay the high premiums. TopTal style platforms are even more exclusive than TopTal. These freelancers are hand-picked to fit a particular niche, reducing the risk even further for employers that need quality work. Naturally, these platforms are also very expensive for employers (there is a $60 per hour minimum rate), and out of those 57 million freelancers in the US, only a few hundred freelancers will make it onto the Codeable team. Codeable With all of the services above, both parties get escrow payment protection, customer support, and dispute resolution services. They also all have rating systems for both freelancers and clients. How are Profits Distributed on These Platforms? The current centralized freelance platforms have a simple pay structure. The platform takes a cut of all payments. Some charge a flat rate on all transactions, while others charge variable rates depending on the type of work. Here’s a quick breakdown of the fees of the major platforms: : 20% up to $500, 10% up to $10,000, 5% over $10,000 per client Upwork : 15% Codeable : 20% ($1 for a $5 gig) Fiverr : 13% (3% to employers, 10% to freelancers) Freelancer.com : Undisclosed. High hourly rates of $65–200 TopTal These fees can quickly add up. For a small $500 freelance project on Upwork, the fees will already be at $100 before the PayPal fees are added. For large $100,000 project on Codeable, the fee would be $15,000 for just a single gig. The payment options are pretty similar for all the platforms, with most accepting credit cards, PayPal, or bank transfers, and paying freelancers via PayPal, Payoneer, and bank transfers. None of the major platforms accept or payout in cryptocurrency yet. There are some smaller startups that accept cryptocurrency payments such as , a 100% Bitcoin-based freelancer platform. But these projects haven’t really taken off, with only a few projects posted a day in all categories. XBTFreelancer How Can the Blockchain Disrupt this Marketplace? Blockchain technology is banking, money transfers, and healthcare, so what about the online freelance market? There are three main ways that the blockchain promises to improve the current services for both freelancers and employers: already disrupting Faster, more efficient payments with cryptocurrencies. The elimination of middleman fees. The use of tokens and smart contracts to give new incentives for a better overall experience. 1. Cryptocurrency Payments Sixteen percent from their freelance work. This makes sense, as getting paid online can be a major headache. , you need to wait for a client to approve a payment, then wait a further five days just for the funds to be available in your account, then you have to wait again for the payment to be processed into your bank account. It can easily take weeks. of freelancers want faster payments With Upwork Cryptocurrency payments are instant, even across international borders. This is useful to freelancers as cryptocurrency can be easily exchanged, so funds can be withdrawn and used as soon as they’ve been approved. Cryptocurrencies also unlock the potential of the . Billions now have access to the Internet, but not to banks. Marketplaces that run on cryptocurrencies leapfrog the need for banks altogether. 39% of the world’s population that don’t have access to bank accounts 2. Lower middleman fees Blockchain applications are threatening middlemen all over the economy. When users can interact directly with each other via a protocol rather than through a centralized service, the value of the middleman plummets. We’re already seeing this with international money transfers and . with online advertising Openbazaar has , and up-and-coming blockchain freelance platforms are already promising . 0% fees on all transactions on its Bitcoin online marketplace 0 –1% fees on their platforms 3. Tokens and smart contracts for new incentives Perhaps the most interesting development is the ability to tokenize anything with a blockchain application. One of the biggest problems for employers and freelancers on the current platforms is trust. Some employers and freelancers don’t treat others fairly, and this drags the whole system down. Crypto-tokens and smart contracts can be used in clever ways to incentivize everyone to act fairly and professionally at all times. , and giving it a real market value on their freelance platform; a blow to your reputation is also a blow to your wallet. This is a win-win for employers and freelancers who honestly want to use the platform. Ethearnal is tokenizing reputation Decentralization can also mean fairer, distributed dispute resolution, leading to better contract outcomes, more accurate ratings, and less centralized authoritarian control. Benefits for freelancers Freelancers get the full benefit of all of the things mentioned above. Cash in their wallets faster. Lower fees mean that they can either increase profits or reduce their rates to be more competitive. The unbanked billions can start participating in the freelancer economy. Tokenized reputation means and clients always have something on the line too. reputation = money, Less centralized control means their business and income is safer, and can’t be unfairly held hostage. Benefits for employers Some of these key benefits don’t really affect employers directly. They don’t really care how quickly their payments get to their freelancers. If freelancers decide to take the reduction in fees as extra profits, they won’t save any money either. Employers also have less at stake if the centralized authority decides to change something or intervene. Moreover, paying with cryptocurrencies will likely be a hassle — at least until they go mainstream. However, some of the benefits will likely shine through indirectly. With that 15–20% reduction in fees, freelancers would likely reduce their rates to stay competitive, resulting in significantly cheaper freelancers. Also, if blockchain platforms are significantly better for freelancers, they will lure the best freelancers. A clear bonus for employers will be if the whole platform runs more efficiently by using the blockchain and leveraging smart contracts and tokenized incentives. If done correctly, this would lead to less risk when hiring and there would be higher quality work. Won’t Moving to New Platforms be Difficult? It’s hard to tell if moving to new platforms would be difficult, as mature blockchain freelance apps just don’t exist yet. But done correctly, it could be the easiest transition ever, especially for freelancers. First, the major projects such as and state that usability is one of their top priorities, and they have the added advantage of being able to learn from the last generation of freelance platforms. Ethearnal Canya But there’s an even bigger incentive. Every freelancer has the “chicken and the egg” problem when starting on a new platform. You need a reputation to get gigs, but you need gigs to get a reputation. Nobody wants to work with someone who has a zero reputation, as they have nothing to lose by acting unfairly. It’s an ancient problem that has no simple solution, up until now. means reputation can have a real, monetary value, just as it should. Freelancers and employers with good intentions can invest upfront in their reputation with cold hard cash, and buy, sell, and use that reputation for projects. The incentive to act professionally is skyhigh, and anything less will cost you money. Tokenized reputation Problems That Need Solving We know it’s possible to solve the problems of payment escrow, issuing tokens and fundraising with smart contracts and ICOs. These have all been done before. However, blockchain tech is still immature, and usability is a key problem. Decentralized apps are slower and harder to use than their centralized counterparts, and developers need to find ways around this. Other problems that new blockchain apps face are a little more subjective. Getting economic incentives right is extremely difficult, especially since many of these incentives have never been studied before, and decentralized protocols and smart contracts are hard or impossible to change on the fly. There’s also the issue of community engagement and network size. A freelance platform’s main asset is its network of workers and jobs. So, who is looking to solve these problems? New Blockchain Solutions The market is new, but there are already some great projects looking to build platforms and protocols that reap the benefits above. Here are some of the most exciting ones so far. Openbazaar: A Decentralized Marketplace for Anything The closest thing that exists at the moment is . Launched in 2014, it’s a general online marketplace where anyone can sell anything peer-to-peer, all with crypto. Openbazaar has faced the many of the same problems that we’ve previously addressed. Openbazaar.org Right out of the gate, Openbazaar had to tackle the usability problem, , “We found very quickly that doing things in a decentralized fashion is not always super intuitive for people. You have to design around it. You have to make it really really good.” with the CEO commenting that building a decentralized network that actually works without central control is no trivial task. For Openbazaar, privacy and anonymity were the main motivations for using the platform, not usability, and the reasons for success were in the support of the community and staff. They also found Canya.io is a blockchain-based freelance platform that boasts “Decentralized payments, decentralized governance, decentralized storage, and eventually decentralized computers.” Even more ambitious and general than Upwork, digital and in-home freelancer services are available on CanYa, and the hiring of a plumber is the main case that they talk about. CanYa CanYa’s its: main selling points are Simplicity. You can find, book, and rate service providers. The CanYaCoin. A cryptocurrency that can be used to buy real-world services. Trustless, decentralized escrow with a hedge against cryptocurrency volatility. Low fees. At around 1%, some of which goes back into rewards to encourage growth and desired user behavior. The ICO was in November 2017, and the app is partly available and feature-rich, and the global launch is set for March 2018. CanYa currently 10,000 users and 46,000 service providers. Their system has built-in mechanisms and incentives to nurture their ecosystem. claims to have Ethearnal is currently in alpha, and the ICO is still underway, but it promises to be the most complete and disruptive platform in the near future. It’s looking to be the decentralized Upwork, with all of the blockchain-specific features that we’ve discussed. Ethearnal Ethearnal is leading the way in this regard. suggests it’s the first blockchain project to attempt to tokenize and monetize reputation — the most valuable asset in the freelance economy. Ethearnal tokens (ERT) represent reputation (contracts are paid in Ethereum), and they can be traded and used on the Ethearnal platform for work. Freelancers can buy or earn ERT to get better jobs, and employers need ERT to put in a stake on projects. The white paper ERT can also be used in a distributed dispute resolution system. When a dispute arises, ERT holders can help resolve it, and earn ERT reputation tokens if they back the winning side. Everyone is always incentivized to act honorably, as being on the losing side of a dispute will cost you money. Transaction fees are 0–1%, all of which will go back into the system to “align the initiatives of all sides involved.” The developers themselves won’t take a penny from transactions on the platform. Funding is done through the ICO. is cutting-edge. It was one of the first companies to announce the use of Vitalik Buterin’s for its ICO. This allows funding from the ICO to be spread out over time, reducing the risk for investors and putting less trust in the central team. Only 10% of the funds are released to developers. Ethearnal’s ICO DAICO model The rest is delivered in milestones (similar to jobs on freelancing platforms) as the community votes for funds to be released. If the community votes for a refund, whatever funds are left (90% originally) will be refunded to everyone that has kept their tokens. This could also keep the community active during the platform’s development, which is very important for long-term growth. Conclusion The global freelance marketplace is huge and has many inefficiencies. Users struggle with high fees, slow payments, low work quality, dishonest employers, and an all-powerful centralized control structure that can ruin entire careers in mere seconds. Decentralized solutions are now possible thanks to the blockchain. There are some fascinating projects under development that are looking to make the marketplace work better for everyone, in the hopes of enticing freelancers and employers over to their way of doing things. The only question now is, will they be able to pull it off?

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